Policy effects by MPOWER policy, individual and total: Lebanon
| Smoking prevalence | Number of smokers | Smoking-attributable deaths adjusted* | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | Female | Total | Total | |
| Initial smoking prevalence and deaths | 45.1% | 29.1% | 582 100 | 298 200 |
| Effect of policies on the status quo | ||||
| Original policy | Short-term effect size† | Long-term effect size† | Total reduction in number of smokers | Reduction in smoking attributable deaths adjusted* |
| Protect through smoke-free air laws | ||||
| Low level | −3.9% | −4.9% | 45 200 | 14 700 |
| Offer cessation treatment | ||||
| Low level | −3.2% | −8.1% | 74 300 | 24 200 |
| Mass media campaigns | ||||
| Low level | −5.5% | −6.6% | 60 600 | 19 700 |
| Warnings on cigarette packages | ||||
| Moderate level | −2.0% | −4.0% | 36 700 | 11 900 |
| Enforcement of marketing restrictions | ||||
| High, but low compliance | −3.6% | −4.7% | 42 900 | 14 000 |
| Raise cigarette taxes | ||||
| Excise tax=33% | −18.1% | −36.3% | 332 800 | 108 200 |
| Combined policies | ||||
| −32.1% | −52.4% (−35.6%, −65.8%)‡ | 481 000 | 156 300 (106 200, 196 200)‡ | |
*Smoking-attributable deaths are based on relative risks from high-income nations8 and are adjusted downward by 35% to reflect low-income or middle income status.9 ,10
†Short-term and long-term effect size are measured in terms of the percentage reduction in smoking prevalence from the initial prepolicy level, that is, (postpolicy smoking prevalence—prepolicy smoking prevalence)/prepolicy smoking prevalence.
‡The lower and upper bounds for the long-term effect size and the reduction in smoking-attributable deaths adjusted for combined policies are based on the lower and upper ranges for sensitivity analysis for each policy from table 1. For individual policies, bounds can be calculated using the ranges for that policy in table 1.