Policies, specifications and effect sizes used in Abridged SimSmoke
| Policy | Specification | Description | Effect size (% effect)* | Ranges for sensitivity analysis* | Long-term multiplier* | Awareness adjustor† | Urban adjustor‡ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax as a per cent of retail price of cigarettes | Tax as a per cent of price | Excise tax in MPOWER, uses arc elasticity formula | Based on price elasticities, −0.15 for HICs and −0.2 for MICs and LICs | (−25%, +25%) | 2 | No | No |
| Smoke-free air laws | |||||||
| Ban in all indoor workplaces | MPOWER | Ban in all indoor private workplaces | 6% | (−50%, +50%) | 1.4 | 1.5 | Yes |
| Ban in indoor offices only | MPOWER | Ban, except ventilated workplaces | 4% | (−50%, +50%) | 1.4 | 1.5 | Yes |
| Ban in health facilities, univ, govt. facilities (2 of 3) | MPOWER | Ban in work areas only | 2% | (−50%, +50%) | 1.4 | 1.5 | Yes |
| Restaurants: smoke-free in all indoor areas | MPOWER | 2% | (−50%, +50%) | 1.4 | 1.5 | Yes | |
| Pubs and bars: smoke-free | MPOWER type | 1% | (−50%, +50%) | 1.4 | 1.5 | Yes | |
| Enforcement | MPOWER: 0–10 | 25% of effect depends on % enforcement (of 10) | |||||
| Publicity | Based on level of tobacco control funding | 25% of above effect depends on publicity | |||||
| Mass media campaigns (policies are mutually exclusive) | |||||||
| Highly publicised campaign | MPOWER: Campaign funds and media campaign | Tobacco control spending ≥US$0.50 per capita and media campaign | 6.5% reduction | (−50%, +50%) | 1.2 | 1 | No |
| Moderately publicised campaign | MPOWER: Campaign funds and media campaign | Tobacco control spending is ≥$0.05 and <US$0.50 per capita, w/agency for tobacco control | 3.5% reduction | (−50%, +50%) | 1.2 | 1 | No |
| Low publicised campaign | MPOWER: Campaign funds and agency for tobacco control | If tobacco control spending is <US$0.05 per capita, w/agency for tobacco control | 1% reduction | (−50%, +50%) | 1.2 | 1 | No |
| Marketing bans¶ | |||||||
| Ban on direct and indirect marketing | MPOWER: score=4 | Ban on all direct and indirect advertising | 5% | (−50%, +50%) | 1.3 | 2 | No |
| Ban on advertising | MPOWER: score=3 | Ban on all direct advertising | 3% | (−50%, +50%) | 1.3 | 2 | No |
| Partial ban on advertising | MPOWER: score=2 | Ban on some direct or indirect advertising | 1% | (−50%, +50%) | 1.3 | 2 | No |
| Enforcement | MPOWER: 0–10 | 0–1.0 | 50% of effect depends on enforcement | ||||
| Health warnings¶ | |||||||
| Complete | MPOWER: score=4 | Bold and graphic, and covers 50% of package | 1% | (−50%, +50%) | 3 | 2 | No |
| Strong | MPOWER: score=3 | Warning 30–50% of package | 0.75% | (−50%, +50%) | 3 | 2 | No |
| Weak | MPOWER: score=2 | Small warning, <30% of package | 0.50% | (−50%, +50%) | 3 | 2 | No |
| Cessation treatment policies** | |||||||
| Nicotine replacement therapy | MPOWER: NRT is provided by general store or pharmacy (no Rx) | Designates if sold by pharmacy or general store and if prescription is required | Prev. reduced 0.667% if available at w/out Rx, 0.334% if Rx | (−75%, +75%) | 2.5 | 1.5 | Yes |
| Bupropion and varenicline | MPOWER: If Bupropion or Varenicline is provided by Rx | Designates if sold by pharmacy with prescription | Prev. reduced 0.334% | (−75%, +75%) | 2.5 | 1.5 | Yes |
| Provision of treatments | Type of facilities: primary care, hospitals, health professionals, community and other | MPOWER: 0=None, Yes in some=0.125, Yes in most=0.5 | If provided in in most, prevalence reduced 2.25% | (−75%, +75%) | 2.5 | 1.5 | Yes |
| Quitline type | MPOWER: 0=None, 1=Yes | Operating active quitline | Prev. reduced 0.5% | (−75%, +75%) | 2.5 | 1.5 | Yes |
| Overall effect | Publicity based on tobacco control funding | Campaign publicised, w/all above policies | Prev. reduced 4.75%, 25% of effect depends on publicity | (−75%, +75%) | 2.5 | 1.5 | Yes |
*Short-term effect size is defined as the relative percentage change in smoking prevalence in first 5 years of policy implementation. The long-term effect is short-term-effect multiplied by the long-term multiplier, adjusted by awareness and urban status adjustors. We also provide ranges for the effect sizes, which are measured as percentage variation in the effect sizes compared to the level in the preceding column.
†The awareness adjustor is multiplied by the effect size for low-income and middle-income countries.
‡The urban adjustor reduces the effect to reflect the percentage of the rural population not affected by the policies indicated.
§See Levy et al7 for a description of the calculations.
¶Categories are mutually exclusive categories.
**Effects are additive over policies.
HIC, high-income country; LIC, low-income country; MIC, middle-income country; NA, not applicable; NRT, nicotine replacement therapy.