Policy effects by MPOWER policy, individual and total: Egypt
| Smoking prevalence | Number of smokers | Smoking-attributable deaths adjusted* | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | Female | Total | Total | |
| Initial smoking prevalence and deaths | 37.7% | 0.5% | 10 445 839 | 3 394 898 |
| Effect of policies on the status quo | ||||
| Original policy | Short-term effect size† | Long-term effect size† | Total reduction in number of smokers | Reduction in smoking attributable deaths adjusted* |
| Protect through smoke-free air laws | ||||
| Low level | −8.9% | −11.1% | 1 162 000 | 378 000 |
| Offer cessation treatments | ||||
| Low level | −2.5% | −6.3% | 658 500 | 214 000 |
| Mass media campaigns | ||||
| Low level | −5.5% | −6.6% | 689 400 | 224 100 |
| Warnings on cigarette packages | ||||
| High level | – | – | – | – |
| Enforcement of marketing restrictions | ||||
| Low level | −3.6% | −4.7% | 488 900 | 158 900 |
| Raise cigarette taxes | ||||
| Excise tax=72.5 | −1.9% | −3.8% | 397 900 | 129 300 |
| Combined policies | ||||
| −20.6% | −28.7% (−14.7%, −40.9%)‡ | 2 996 700 | 973 900 (500 000, 1 387 200)‡ | |
*Smoking-attributable deaths are based on relative risks from high-income nations8 and are adjusted downward by 35% to reflect low-income or middle-income status.9 ,10
†Short-term and long-term effect size are measured in terms of the percentage reduction in smoking prevalence from the initial prepolicy level, that is, (postpolicy smoking prevalence—prepolicy smoking prevalence)/prepolicy smoking prevalence.
‡The lower and upper bounds for the long-term effect size and the reduction in smoking-attributable deaths adjusted for combined policies are based on the lower and upper ranges for sensitivity analysis for each policy from table 1. For individual policies, bounds can be calculated using the ranges for that policy in table 1.