Table 4

Merrimańs methodology to estimate the illicit market in 2013

Baseline (Survey 2008)Application (Survey 2013)
ASelf-Reported Consumption (billions of Sticks)(observed) 86.1(observed) 77.0
BIllicit Self-Reported Consumption (billions of Sticks)(Table 3 modified)1 14.6
CLegal Sales (billions of sticks)(observed) 105.9(observed) 76.0
DProportion under report of consumption(=(1-(A-B)/C)) 0.32(Assumed equal to 2008) 0.32
ETotal Sales (billions of Sticks)(=A/(1-D)) 127.4(=A/(1-D)) 113.9
FIllegal Sales (billions of Sticks)(=E-C) 21.5(=E-C) 37.9
GProportion Illegal consumption in total consumption(=F/E) 0.17(=F/E) 0.33
  • 1The total number of yearly manufactured cigarette consumption was estimated for daily and occasional smokers who bought illicit cigarettes at their last purchases.

  • Source: authors' elaboration with legal sales from Secretariat of Federal Revenue and self-reported consumption from GATS- Brazil, 2008 & 2013, Daily and Occasional Smokers.