Merrimańs methodology to estimate the illicit market in 2013
| Baseline (Survey 2008) | Application (Survey 2013) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| A | Self-Reported Consumption (billions of Sticks) | (observed) 86.1 | (observed) 77.0 |
| B | Illicit Self-Reported Consumption (billions of Sticks) | (Table 3 modified)1 14.6 | – |
| C | Legal Sales (billions of sticks) | (observed) 105.9 | (observed) 76.0 |
| D | Proportion under report of consumption | (=(1-(A-B)/C)) 0.32 | (Assumed equal to 2008) 0.32 |
| E | Total Sales (billions of Sticks) | (=A/(1-D)) 127.4 | (=A/(1-D)) 113.9 |
| F | Illegal Sales (billions of Sticks) | (=E-C) 21.5 | (=E-C) 37.9 |
| G | Proportion Illegal consumption in total consumption | (=F/E) 0.17 | (=F/E) 0.33 |
1The total number of yearly manufactured cigarette consumption was estimated for daily and occasional smokers who bought illicit cigarettes at their last purchases.
Source: authors' elaboration with legal sales from Secretariat of Federal Revenue and self-reported consumption from GATS- Brazil, 2008 & 2013, Daily and Occasional Smokers.