Table 2

Actual estimates of treatment effects

Year	South Africa (consumption sticks per capita)	Synthetic South Africa (consumption sticks per capita)	Treatment effect (sticks per capita)	Cumulative treatment effect (%)
1990	1010	1009	1	0.1
1991	993	992	1	0.1
1992	947	946	1	0.1
1993	901	900	1	0.1
1994	883	867	16	2
1995	849	887	−38	−4
1996	796	881	−85	−10
1997	737	864	−127	−15
1998	692	824	−132	−16
1999	634	818	−184	−22
2000	577	785	−208	−26
2001	570	783	−213	−27
2002	597	802	−205	−26
2003	495	815	−319	−39
2004	521	811	−290	−36

Treatment effect in the fourth column is obtained by subtracting synthetic South Africa's per capita consumption from South Africa's per capita consumption. The last column presents treatment effects as a percentage difference. The consumption numbers for synthetic South Africa are obtained by applying the weights in table 1 to the cigarette consumption numbers of countries in the donor pool.