Table 3

Estimated impact of restricting tobacco outlets to half of liquor stores only: QALYs gained and health system cost savings, by population subgroup*

Sex and age (in 2011)Non-Māori Māori Total population
QALYs gainedNet health system cost-savings (NZ$million)†QALYs gainedQALYs gained via equity analysis‡Net health system cost-savings (NZ$ million)†QALYs gainedNet health system cost-savings (NZ$million)† Sex and age-groups combined 66 200 (36 800 to 113 000)$1170 (644 to 1970)63 200 (35 500 to 103 000)94 900 (51 400 to 158 000)$646 (361 to 1050)129 000 (74 100 to 212 000)$1820 (1030 to 2960)
Men
0–14 years15 800$33415 70023 800$24231 500$576 15–24 years9340$18261209430$86.215 500$268
25–44 years8590$13634705480$40.812 100$177 45–64 years2660$31.56101110$5.83280$37.3
65+ years100$0.61020$0.05100$0.6 All ages36 500$68425 90039 900$37562 400$1060
Women
0–14 years13 200$24222 00031 800$17335 200$415 15–24 years6930$121849012 600$61.315 400$183
25–44 years6990$10155908580$31.812 600$133 45–64 years2500$24.811202030$4.73630$29.4
65+ years120$0.52050$0.05140$0.5 All ages29 700$49037 20055 000$27166 900$761
Per capita (QALYs/1000 people and $) 17.7$0.3193.7141$0.9629.4$0.41
Scenario analyses
3% Discount rate26 500$525 6% Discount rate6840$172
20% lower PE for all smokers105 000$1490 20% higher PE for all smokers154 000$2180
Same PE for Māori and Non-Māori120 000$1730 Growth in the illicit market§129 000$1820
• *Values over the remainder of the 2011 New Zealand population's lifetime. Undiscounted. All values rounded to three meaningful digits. 95% uncertainty intervals in brackets.

• †Costs in 2011 NZ$; Includes the cost offsets and intervention cost, the latter being the cost of a law ($3.6 million, 95% UI $1.7 to$6.0 million) mandating retail outlet reductions, distributed pro-rata across all citizens alive in 2011.

• ‡QALYs for Māori in an ‘Equity analysis’ are calculated using non-Māori background mortality and morbidity rates, so as not to ‘penalise’ Māori due to higher background mortality and morbidity rates.

• §A growing illicit market, whereby every 10% increase in the price of a pack of 20 cigarettes would result in a 1% increase in the illicit market. This results in the illicit market share reaching 7% in 2021.

• PE, price elasticities.