Table 3

The effects of PWLs on smoking-attributable deaths, US SimSmoke model, ages 18 and above

Gender/year	Annual reduction					Cumulative impact
Male	2015	2016	2020	2045	2065	2016–2065
Status quo*	274 147	272 386	265 138	204 926	160 124	11 113 438
Best estimate†	–	149	1793	9662	11 460	396 752
Lower bound†	–	74	900	4876	5433	197 437
Upper bound†	–	261	3197	17 657	21 236	725 189
Female	2015	2016	2020	2045	2065	2016–2065
Status quo*	173 609	172 585	169 144	141 303	101 961	7 374 748
Best estimate†	–	86	1050	6536	6619	256 017
Lower bound†	–	43	527	3349	3231	129 611
Upper bound†	–	150	1878	11 874	12 151	465 340
Total	2015	2016	2020	2045	2065	2016–2065
Status quo*	447 756	444 971	434 282	346 229	262 085	18 488 186
Best estimate†	–	235	2843	16 199	18 078	652 769
Lower bound†	–	117	1428	8225	8664	327 048
Upper bound†	–	411	5075	29 531	33 387	1 190 529

*Status quo represents the predicted number of smoking-attributable deaths holding all policies constant at their 2015 level in future years.
†Best, lower bound and upper bound estimates represent the predicted number of smoking-attributable maternal and child health outcomes averted with PWLs compared to the status quo (ie, status quo attributable outcomes−outcomes with PWLs).
PWLs, pictorial warning labels.