The effects of PWLs on smoking prevalence, US SimSmoke model, ages 18 and above
| Male | Female | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2016 | 2020 | 2045 | 2065 | 2015 | 2016 | 2020 | 2045 | 2065 | |
| Smoking prevalence, % | ||||||||||
| Status quo* | 19.0 | 18.7 | 17.7 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 15.0 | 14.8 | 13.9 | 11.1 | 10.8 |
| Best estimate | 19.0 | 18.0 | 16.8 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 15.0 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 10.2 | 9.8 |
| Lower bound | 19.0 | 18.3 | 17.2 | 14.2 | 13.8 | 15.0 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 10.7 | 10.4 |
| Upper bound | 19.0 | 17.4 | 16.0 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 15.0 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 8.8 |
| Relative change from status quo, %† | ||||||||||
| Best estimate | – | −4.0 | −5.2 | −8.9 | −9.7 | – | −4.0 | −5.1 | −8.8 | −9.6 |
| Lower bound | – | −2.0 | −2.5 | −3.9 | −4.1 | – | −2.0 | −2.5 | −3.8 | −4.1 |
| Upper bound | – | −7.0 | −9.4 | −17.1 | −18.7 | – | −7.0 | −9.2 | −16.7 | −18.5 |
*Status quo holds policies constant at their 2015 level in future years, whereas other estimates show the effect with strong graphic warnings implemented.
†Relative changes are from the status quo estimates measured as the difference in the smoking prevalence with warnings from the status quo prevalence in a particular year relative to the status quo prevalence in that year.
PWLs, pictorial warning labels.