Table 1

Policy specifications and effect sizes

PolicyDescriptionShort-term effect size (% effect)*Long-term multiplierAwareness parameter†Urban adjustor‡Lower and upper bounds (%)
Protect: smoke-free policies (additive over policies)
 Indoor workplaces: smoke freeBan in all indoor workplaces, from MPOWER Reports6%1.31.5Yes(−50, +50)
 Restaurants: smoke freeBan in all indoor restaurants, from MPOWER Reports2%1.31.5Yes(−50, +50)
 Pubs and bars: smoke freeBan in all indoor restaurants, from MPOWER Reports1%1.31.5Yes(−50, +50)
 EnforcementRanking out of 10 converted to per cent, from MPOWER Reports25% of effect by type depends on % enforcement
 PublicityOn the basis of the level of tobacco control expenditures from MPOWER Reports. Set at high (0.75), medium (0.5) and low (0.25)25% of the effect by type depends on publicity from tobacco control campaigns
Offer: cessation treatment policies (effects are additive over policies)
 Availability of NRT and BupropionIf NRT is provided by either general store or pharmacy w/Rx=1 and=2 If NRT is provided by general store or pharmacy (no Rx required). If Bupropion is provided by either general store or pharmacy with Rx=1. From MPOWER Reports1% if score of 32.51.5Yes(−50, +50)
 Provision of treatmentsTypes of facilities distinguished, specified as primary care facilities, hospitals, offices of health professionals. Community and other. MPOWER: 0=none, yes in some=0.1, yes in most=0.2. From MPOWER Reports2.25% if indicator ≥1 and programme is well publicised2.51.5Yes(−50, +50)
 Quit lineActive quit line, from MPOWER Reports0.50%2.51.5Yes(−50, +50)
Warnings about health on cigarette packages (mutually exclusive categories)
 Strong health warningsBold and graphic, and covers at least 50% the package, from MPOWER Reports, score=41.0%32No(−50, +50)
 Moderate health warningsNongraphic warning covers at least one-third of the package, from MPOWER Reports, score=30.5%32No(−50, +50)
 Weak health warningsNon-graphic warning covers <one-third of the package. From MPOWER Reports, score=20.1%32No(−50, +50)
Enforce: marketing bans (mutually exclusive categories)
 Ban on direct and indirect marketingBan on all direct and indirect advertising from MPOWER Reports, score=45%1.32No(−50, +50)
 Ban on advertisingBan on all direct advertising, from MPOWER Rep, score=33%1.32No(−50, +50)
 Partial ban on advertisingBan on some direct or indirect advertising, from MPOWER Reports, score=21%1.32No(−50, +50)
 EnforcementRanking out of 10 converted to per cent, from MPOWER Reports50% of the effects depends on % enforcement
Raise cigarette taxes
 Increase in retail price of cigarettes due to taxesCigarette price in local currency from MPOWER Reports, adjusted for inflation using inflation rates in Prevalence elasticity is applied to the percentage change in the inflation-adjusted price using an arc elasticity formulaOn the basis of country-specific price elasticities, −0.15 for HICs, −0.2 for MICs, and −0.25 for LICs§2NoNo(−25, +25)
  • *The initial effect size is the short-term effect that is multiplied by the long-term multiplier with rural and awareness adjustments as specified in the table.

  • †The awareness parameter is multiplied by the effect size for low-income and middle-income countries.

  • ‡The urban adjustor reduces the effect to reflect the per cent rural for the policies indicated.

  • §See Levy et al 10 for description of calculations.

  • HIC, high-income country; LIC, low-income country; MIC, middle-income country; NRT, nicotine replacement therapy.