Policy specifications and effect sizes
| Policy | Description | Short-term effect size (% effect)* | Long-term multiplier | Awareness parameter† | Urban adjustor‡ | Lower and upper bounds (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protect: smoke-free policies (additive over policies) | ||||||
| Indoor workplaces: smoke free | Ban in all indoor workplaces, from MPOWER Reports | 6% | 1.3 | 1.5 | Yes | (−50, +50) |
| Restaurants: smoke free | Ban in all indoor restaurants, from MPOWER Reports | 2% | 1.3 | 1.5 | Yes | (−50, +50) |
| Pubs and bars: smoke free | Ban in all indoor restaurants, from MPOWER Reports | 1% | 1.3 | 1.5 | Yes | (−50, +50) |
| Enforcement | Ranking out of 10 converted to per cent, from MPOWER Reports | 25% of effect by type depends on % enforcement | ||||
| Publicity | On the basis of the level of tobacco control expenditures from MPOWER Reports. Set at high (0.75), medium (0.5) and low (0.25) | 25% of the effect by type depends on publicity from tobacco control campaigns | ||||
| Offer: cessation treatment policies (effects are additive over policies) | ||||||
| Availability of NRT and Bupropion | If NRT is provided by either general store or pharmacy w/Rx=1 and=2 If NRT is provided by general store or pharmacy (no Rx required). If Bupropion is provided by either general store or pharmacy with Rx=1. From MPOWER Reports | 1% if score of 3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | Yes | (−50, +50) |
| Provision of treatments | Types of facilities distinguished, specified as primary care facilities, hospitals, offices of health professionals. Community and other. MPOWER: 0=none, yes in some=0.1, yes in most=0.2. From MPOWER Reports | 2.25% if indicator ≥1 and programme is well publicised | 2.5 | 1.5 | Yes | (−50, +50) |
| Quit line | Active quit line, from MPOWER Reports | 0.50% | 2.5 | 1.5 | Yes | (−50, +50) |
| Warnings about health on cigarette packages (mutually exclusive categories) | ||||||
| Strong health warnings | Bold and graphic, and covers at least 50% the package, from MPOWER Reports, score=4 | 1.0% | 3 | 2 | No | (−50, +50) |
| Moderate health warnings | Nongraphic warning covers at least one-third of the package, from MPOWER Reports, score=3 | 0.5% | 3 | 2 | No | (−50, +50) |
| Weak health warnings | Non-graphic warning covers <one-third of the package. From MPOWER Reports, score=2 | 0.1% | 3 | 2 | No | (−50, +50) |
| Enforce: marketing bans (mutually exclusive categories) | ||||||
| Ban on direct and indirect marketing | Ban on all direct and indirect advertising from MPOWER Reports, score=4 | 5% | 1.3 | 2 | No | (−50, +50) |
| Ban on advertising | Ban on all direct advertising, from MPOWER Rep, score=3 | 3% | 1.3 | 2 | No | (−50, +50) |
| Partial ban on advertising | Ban on some direct or indirect advertising, from MPOWER Reports, score=2 | 1% | 1.3 | 2 | No | (−50, +50) |
| Enforcement | Ranking out of 10 converted to per cent, from MPOWER Reports | 50% of the effects depends on % enforcement | ||||
| Raise cigarette taxes | ||||||
| Increase in retail price of cigarettes due to taxes | Cigarette price in local currency from MPOWER Reports, adjusted for inflation using inflation rates in theodora.com. Prevalence elasticity is applied to the percentage change in the inflation-adjusted price using an arc elasticity formula | On the basis of country-specific price elasticities, −0.15 for HICs, −0.2 for MICs, and −0.25 for LICs§ | 2 | No | No | (−25, +25) |
*The initial effect size is the short-term effect that is multiplied by the long-term multiplier with rural and awareness adjustments as specified in the table.
†The awareness parameter is multiplied by the effect size for low-income and middle-income countries.
‡The urban adjustor reduces the effect to reflect the per cent rural for the policies indicated.
§See Levy et al 10 for description of calculations.
HIC, high-income country; LIC, low-income country; MIC, middle-income country; NRT, nicotine replacement therapy.