Table 3

Status quo and e-cigarette substitution, premature deaths and life years lost, men and women, cohort born in 1981 (age 35 years in 2016)

Outcomes	Year	2016	2026	2056	Cumulative (2016–2080)	Deaths prevented/life years gained*	% Change relative to status quo
Outcomes	Age, years	35	45	75	Cumulative (2016–2080)	Deaths prevented/life years gained*	% Change relative to status quo
Male
Status Quo Scenario†
Prevalence	Never smoker	56.1%	55.9%	58.4%
	Cigarette smoker	28.4%	21.4%	5.5%
	Former smoker	15.5%	22.7%	36.1%
Premature deaths		0	1110	5927	278 703
Life years lost		0	42 538	70 549	3217 819
Optimistic Scenario‡
Prevalence	Never smoker	56.1%	55.8%	56.8%
	Cigarette smoker	28.4%	5.0%	1.2%
	Former smoker>age 40 years	15.5%	17.6%	25.4%
	E-cigarettes exclusive	0.0%	8.4%	3.0%
	Former smoker<age 40 years	0.0%	3.8%	3.9%
	E-cigarette/former smoker	0.0%	8.1%	2.5%
	Former e-cigarette user	0.0%	1.3%	7.3%
Premature deaths		0	300	3412	158 760	119 943	43.0%
Life years lost		0	11 497	40 613	1559 546	1658 273	51.5%
Pessimistic Scenario§
Premature deaths		0	777	5123	236 850	41 853	15.0%
Life years lost		0	29 783	60 982	2621 426	956 393	18.5%
Female
Status Quo Scenario†
Prevalence	Never smoker	67.1%	66.8%	67.6%
	Cigarette smoker	21.0%	16.3%	3.7%
	Former smoker	11.9%	16.9%	28.7%
Premature deaths		0	137	1924	98 714
Life years lost		0	5673	26 525	1078 282
Optimistic Scenario‡
Prevalence	Never smoker	67.1%	66.8%	67.0%
	Cigarette smoker	21.0%	5.0%	1.1%
	Former smoker >age 40 years	11.9%	13.4%	20.9%
	E-cigarettes exclusive	0.0%	5.8%	1.6%
	Former smoker <age 40 years	0.0%	2.6%	2.6%
	E-cigarette/former smoker	0.0%	5.5%	1.4%
	Former e-cigarette user	0.0%	0.9%	5.3%
Premature deaths		0	47	1020	58 186	40 528	41.1%
Life years lost		0	1936	14 066	518 499	559 782	51.9%
Pessimistic Scenario§
Premature deaths		0	108	1777	89 933	8781	8.9%
Life years lost		0	4451	24 492	950 737	127 544	11.8%

*Life years gained=life years lost in Status Quo Scenario − life years lost in E-cigarette Substitution Scenario.
†Smoking rates evolve from initial 2016 levels based on age, gender and cohort-specific smoking initiation and cessation rates in the absence of e-cigarette use.
‡Optimistic Scenario: e-cigarettes excess risk 5% of smoking, 5% of the population continues to initiate cigarette smoking or remain as smokers, the remainder of never smokers then initiate e-cigarette use at the rate of cigarette smoking initiation in the Status Quo Scenario, and both smokers and e-cigarette users quit at the rate of smokers in the Status Quo Scenario.
§Pessimistic Scenario: e-cigarettes excess risk 40% of smoking, 10% of the population continues to initiate cigarette smoking or remain as smokers, the remainder of never smokers then initiate e-cigarette use at the 150% rate of cigarette smoking initiation in the Status Quo Scenario, and e-cigarette users quit at 50% of the rate of smokers in the Status Quo Scenario and smokers quit at the Status Quo cessation rate.