Table 1

Achieving a tobacco-free ambition: health and economic outcomes by disease for 2035 for the UK population

Tobacco-related diseaseBaseline incidence (CI)TFA scenario incidence (CI)Incident cases avoidable
(CI)
Baseline cumulative incidence (CI)TFA scenario cumulative incidence (CI)Cumulative incidence cases avoidable (CI)Direct costs avoided (£ million)Non-health costs avoided (£ million)
Coronary heart disease99 552
(98 825 to 100 279)
98 825
(98 099 to 99 552)
727
(0 to 1453)
1 961 426
(1 959 355 to 1 963 497)
1 953 832
(1 951 760 to 1 955 903)
7594
(4833 to 10 356)
7
(4 to 10)
-
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease65 399
(64 672 to 66 126)
61 766
(61 039 to 62 492)
3633
(2907 to 4360)
1 494 025
(1 491 954 to 1 496 096)
1 465 028
(1 462 957 to 1 467 100)
28 997
(26 235 to 31 758)
13
(12 to 15)
-
Stroke85 745
(85 019 to 86 472)
82 839
(82 112 to 83 566)
2907
(2180 to 3633)
1 837 844
(1 835 773 to 1 839 916)
1 812 990
(1 810 919 to 1 815 061)
24 854
(22 093 to 27 616)
15
(13 to 16)
-
Tobacco-related cancers355 335
(354 307 to 356 363)
356 062
(355 034 to 357 089)
5087
(4059 to 6114)
4 290 145
(4 286 762 to 4 293 527)
4 254 244
(4 250 862 to 4 257 626)
35 901
(31 758 to 40 043)
32
(28 to 36)
-
Acute myeloid leukaemia3633
(3633 to3633)
3633
(3633 to 3633)
0
(0 to 0)
67 659
(66 969 to 68 350)
67 659
(66 969 to 68 350)
0
(−690 to 690)
13
(6 to 19)
-
Bladder cancer13 080
(13 080 to 13 080)
13 080
(13 080 to 13 080)
0
(0 to 0)
289 968
(289 278 to 290 658)
288 587
(287 897 to 289 278)
1381
(690 to 2071)
1
(0 to 1)
-
Bowel cancer49 413
(48 686 to 50 139)
49 413
(48 686 to 50 139)
0
(−727 to 727)
956 894
(955 513 to 958 275)
955 513
(954 133 to 956 894)
1381
(−690 to 3452)
1
(−1 to 3)
-
Cervical cancer3633
(3633 to 3633)
3633
(3633 to 3633)
0
(0 to 0)
69 730
(69 040 to 70 421)
69 040
(68 350 to 69 730)
690
(0 to 1381)
1
(0 to 1)
-
Chronic myeloid leukaemia727
(727 to 727)
727
(727 to 727)
0
(0 to 0)
15 879
(15 879 to 15 879)
15 879
(15 879 to 15 879)
0
(0 to 0)
-1
(−1 to −1)
-
Gastric cancer8720
(8720 to 8720)
8720
(8720 to 8720)
0
(0 to 0)
176 052
(175 362 to 176 742)
175 362
(174 671 to 176 052)
690
(0 to 1381)
0
(−1 to 1)
-
Hepatic cancer5087
(5087 to 5087)
5087
(5087 to 5087)
0
(0 to 0)
106 322
(105 631 to 107 012)
105 631
(104 941 to 106 322)
690
(0 to 1381)
0
(−1 to 1)
-
Laryngeal cancer2907
(2907 to 2907)
2907
(2907 to 2907)
0 (0 to 0)69 730
(69 040 to 70 421)
69 040
(68 350 to 69 730)
690
(0 to 1381)
1
(0 to 1)
-
Lung cancer58 859
(58 133 to 59 586)
55 953
(55 226 to 56 679)
2907 (2180 to 3633)1 427 056
(1 424 985 to 1 429 128)
1 407 725
(1 405 654 to 1 409 796)
19 331
(16 570 to 22 093)
11
(9 to 12)
-
Oesophageal cancer10 900
(10 900 to 10 900)
10 900
(10 900 to 10 900)
0 (0 to 0)272 708
(272 018 to 273 398)
268 566
(267 875 to 269 256)
4142
(3452 to 4833)
3
(2 to 4)
-
Oral cancer7993
(7993 to 7993)
7267
(7267 to 7267)
727
(727 to 727)
194 002
(193 312 to 194 693)
189 860
(189 170 to 190 550)
4142
(3452 to 4833)
2
(1 to 2)
-
Ovarian cancer8720
(8720 to 8720)
7993
(7993 to 7993)
727
(727 to 727)
176 742
(176 052 to 177 433)
174 671
(173 981 to 175 362)
2071
(1381 to 2762)
2
(1 to 3)
-
Pancreatic cancer10 900
(10 900 to 10 900)
10 173
(10 173 to 10 173)
727
(727 to 727)
220 928
(220 238 to 221 618)
220 928
(220 238 to 221 618)
0
(−690 to 690)
0
(−2 to 2)
-
Renal cancer11 627
(11 627 to 11 627)
11 627
(11 627 to 11 627)
0
(0 to 0)
246 473
(245 782 to 247 163)
245 782
(245 092 to 246 473)
690
(0 to 1381)
0
(0 to 1)
-
Total446 894
(445 269 to 448 519)
434 541
(432 916 to 436 165)
12 353
(10 728 to 13 978)
9 583 440
(9 578 510 to 9 588 371)
9 486 094
(9 481 163 to 9 491 024)
97 346
(91 019 to 103 674)
67
(59 to 76)
548
  • TFA, tobacco-free ambition.