Projected future tobacco smoking prevalence for 2025 by ethnicity under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and for the selected tobacco endgame strategies (adults, daily smoking prevalence (SP) and ordered by increasing strategy effectiveness)
| Tobacco endgame intervention/BAU | Ethnic group | SP (95%UI) in 2025 | SP gap by ethnicity in 2025 (%)* | Year<5% SP is achieved |
| BAU* | Non-Māori | 8.1% (6.4% to 10.3%) | 2038 | |
| Māori | 20.5% (16.8% to 25.2%) | 12.5 | 2061 | |
| Substantial outlet reduction strategy | Non-Māori | 7.3% (5.7% to 9.4%) | 2035 | |
| Māori | 17.8% (14.3% to 22.4%) | 10.5 | 2059 | |
| Annual 10% tobacco tax increases | Non-Māori | 6.8% (5.3% to 8.8%) | 2032 | |
| Māori | 16.0% (12.3% to 20.4%) | 9.3 | 2054 | |
| Tobacco-free generation strategy | Non-Māori | 5.6% (4.2% to 7.5%) | 2027 | |
| Māori | 11.2% (8.4% to 14.8%) | 5.6 | 2035 | |
| Combined tobacco endgame strategy | Non-Māori | 4.8% (3.5% to 6.4%) | 2025 | |
| Māori | 9.3% (6.9% to 12.3%) | 4.5 | 2032 | |
| Sinking lid on tobacco supply | Non-Māori | 0% (0% to 0%) | 2022 | |
| Māori | 0% (0% to 0%) | 0.0 | 2024 |
*Smoking prevalence at baseline (2011) was estimated at 34.7% for Māori and 14.1% for non-Māori (back-estimated from the 2013 Census).14 The absolute smoking prevalence gap between Māori and non-Māori at baseline was 20.6%.