Table 3

Total population health gains (in QALYs gained) and health system cost savings (in NZ$) for the five tobacco endgame interventions compared with BAU over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population’s lifetime at 3% and 0% discounting*, and % QALYs gained and costs saved by 2025, 2040, 2055 and 2070

Over the remainder of 2011 population’s livesBy 2025By 2040By 2055By 2070
Endgame interventionQALYs gained
(95% UI)
Net health system cost savings in NZ$ in millions (95% UI)QALYs gained (%)Cost savings (%)QALYs gained (%)Cost savings (%)QALYs gained (%)Cost savings (%)QALYs gained (%)Cost savings (%)
3% discount rate
 Outlet reduction28 900 (16 500 to 48 200)$584 ($328 to $985)1.52.815.025.643.162.172.591.2
 Tax increases53 200 (29 200 to 86 300)$1080 ($597 to $1780)2.14.518.029.946.665.574.992.4
 TFG strategy83 200 (55 400 to 119 000)$1940 ($1300 to $2810)0.30.36.39.723.643.055.185.0
 Combined strategy119 000 (82 700 to 173 000)$2600 ($1760 to $3690)1.32.713.020.536.755.266.589.1
 Sinking lid282 000 (189 000 to 405 000)$5430 ($3640 to $7960)1.13.318.435.453.575.082.295.7
0% discount rate
 Outlet reduction144 000 (75 800 to 247 000)$2130 ($1130 to $3580)0.41.16.114.223.945.752.784.2
 Tax increases248 000 (135 000 to 428 000)$3670 ($2000 to $6200)0.61.97.516.826.448.955.285.8
 TFG strategy505 000 (328 000 to 763 000)$8240 ($5380 to $12 300)0.10.12.24.811.229.636.776.9
 Combined strategy628 000 (401 000 to 950 000)$9800 ($6350 to $14 500)0.41.04.910.618.939.146.281.4
 Sinking lid1210 000 (780 000 to 1770 000)$17 100 ($11 100 to $25 200)0.41.58.722.334.160.766.091.3
  • *Estimated health gain and cost savings over the remainder of the population alive in 2011, and % QALYs gained and costs saved by 2025, 2040, 2055 and 2070 at 6% discounting are presented in online supplementary table S9.

  • BAU, business as usual; NZ, New Zealand; QALY, quality-adjusted life-years;TFG, tobacco-free generation.