Total population health gains (in QALYs gained) and health system cost savings (in NZ$) for the five tobacco endgame interventions compared with BAU over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population’s lifetime at 3% and 0% discounting*, and % QALYs gained and costs saved by 2025, 2040, 2055 and 2070
Over the remainder of 2011 population’s lives | By 2025 | By 2040 | By 2055 | By 2070 | ||||||
Endgame intervention | QALYs gained (95% UI) | Net health system cost savings in NZ$ in millions (95% UI) | QALYs gained (%) | Cost savings (%) | QALYs gained (%) | Cost savings (%) | QALYs gained (%) | Cost savings (%) | QALYs gained (%) | Cost savings (%) |
3% discount rate | ||||||||||
Outlet reduction | 28 900 (16 500 to 48 200) | $584 ($328 to $985) | 1.5 | 2.8 | 15.0 | 25.6 | 43.1 | 62.1 | 72.5 | 91.2 |
Tax increases | 53 200 (29 200 to 86 300) | $1080 ($597 to $1780) | 2.1 | 4.5 | 18.0 | 29.9 | 46.6 | 65.5 | 74.9 | 92.4 |
TFG strategy | 83 200 (55 400 to 119 000) | $1940 ($1300 to $2810) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 23.6 | 43.0 | 55.1 | 85.0 |
Combined strategy | 119 000 (82 700 to 173 000) | $2600 ($1760 to $3690) | 1.3 | 2.7 | 13.0 | 20.5 | 36.7 | 55.2 | 66.5 | 89.1 |
Sinking lid | 282 000 (189 000 to 405 000) | $5430 ($3640 to $7960) | 1.1 | 3.3 | 18.4 | 35.4 | 53.5 | 75.0 | 82.2 | 95.7 |
0% discount rate | ||||||||||
Outlet reduction | 144 000 (75 800 to 247 000) | $2130 ($1130 to $3580) | 0.4 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 14.2 | 23.9 | 45.7 | 52.7 | 84.2 |
Tax increases | 248 000 (135 000 to 428 000) | $3670 ($2000 to $6200) | 0.6 | 1.9 | 7.5 | 16.8 | 26.4 | 48.9 | 55.2 | 85.8 |
TFG strategy | 505 000 (328 000 to 763 000) | $8240 ($5380 to $12 300) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 11.2 | 29.6 | 36.7 | 76.9 |
Combined strategy | 628 000 (401 000 to 950 000) | $9800 ($6350 to $14 500) | 0.4 | 1.0 | 4.9 | 10.6 | 18.9 | 39.1 | 46.2 | 81.4 |
Sinking lid | 1210 000 (780 000 to 1770 000) | $17 100 ($11 100 to $25 200) | 0.4 | 1.5 | 8.7 | 22.3 | 34.1 | 60.7 | 66.0 | 91.3 |
*Estimated health gain and cost savings over the remainder of the population alive in 2011, and % QALYs gained and costs saved by 2025, 2040, 2055 and 2070 at 6% discounting are presented in online supplementary table S9.
BAU, business as usual; NZ, New Zealand; QALY, quality-adjusted life-years;TFG, tobacco-free generation.