Table 3

Total population health gains (in QALYs gained) and health system cost savings (in NZ$) for the five tobacco endgame interventions compared with BAU over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population’s lifetime at 3% and 0% discounting*, and % QALYs gained and costs saved by 2025, 2040, 2055 and 2070

	Over the remainder of 2011 population’s lives		By 2025		By 2040		By 2055		By 2070
Endgame intervention	QALYs gained (95% UI)	Net health system cost savings in NZ$ in millions (95% UI)	QALYs gained (%)	Cost savings (%)	QALYs gained (%)	Cost savings (%)	QALYs gained (%)	Cost savings (%)	QALYs gained (%)	Cost savings (%)
*3% discount rate*
Outlet reduction	28 900 (16 500 to 48 200)	$584 ($328 to $985)	1.5	2.8	15.0	25.6	43.1	62.1	72.5	91.2
Tax increases	53 200 (29 200 to 86 300)	$1080 ($597 to $1780)	2.1	4.5	18.0	29.9	46.6	65.5	74.9	92.4
TFG strategy	83 200 (55 400 to 119 000)	$1940 ($1300 to $2810)	0.3	0.3	6.3	9.7	23.6	43.0	55.1	85.0
Combined strategy	119 000 (82 700 to 173 000)	$2600 ($1760 to $3690)	1.3	2.7	13.0	20.5	36.7	55.2	66.5	89.1
Sinking lid	282 000 (189 000 to 405 000)	$5430 ($3640 to $7960)	1.1	3.3	18.4	35.4	53.5	75.0	82.2	95.7
*0% discount rate*
Outlet reduction	144 000 (75 800 to 247 000)	$2130 ($1130 to $3580)	0.4	1.1	6.1	14.2	23.9	45.7	52.7	84.2
Tax increases	248 000 (135 000 to 428 000)	$3670 ($2000 to $6200)	0.6	1.9	7.5	16.8	26.4	48.9	55.2	85.8
TFG strategy	505 000 (328 000 to 763 000)	$8240 ($5380 to $12 300)	0.1	0.1	2.2	4.8	11.2	29.6	36.7	76.9
Combined strategy	628 000 (401 000 to 950 000)	$9800 ($6350 to $14 500)	0.4	1.0	4.9	10.6	18.9	39.1	46.2	81.4
Sinking lid	1210 000 (780 000 to 1770 000)	$17 100 ($11 100 to $25 200)	0.4	1.5	8.7	22.3	34.1	60.7	66.0	91.3

*Estimated health gain and cost savings over the remainder of the population alive in 2011, and % QALYs gained and costs saved by 2025, 2040, 2055 and 2070 at 6% discounting are presented in online supplementary table S9.
BAU, business as usual; NZ, New Zealand; QALY, quality-adjusted life-years;TFG, tobacco-free generation.