Summary of economic effects of Proposition 99
| Study | Dataset | Estimated price elasticitya | Percent reduction in consumption from surtax | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short run | Long run | Short run | Long run | ||
| Hu et al10 | Monthly California time- series, 1984–91 | 9.5 | |||
| Keeler et al8 | Monthly California time- series, 1980–90 | —0.3 to —0.4 | —0.5 to —0.6 | 8.8b | 13b |
| Sung et al6 | Annual State Panel (11 western states), 1967–90, Tobacco Institute7 | —0.4 | —0.48 | 9.8c | 11.7c |
↵a Measured at sample means corresponding to each model.
↵b Measured at sample means for 1980–90.
↵c These figures are based on the price elasticity estimates measured at sample mean values for 1980–90, in order to be comparable to the calculation of price elasticity used in Keeler et al.8 The published results reported in Sung et al,6 on the other hand, are based on the elasticity estimates measured at fiscal year 1988, during which Proposition 99 was passed.