Summary of economic effects of Proposition 99

StudyDatasetEstimated price elasticityaPercent reduction in consumption from surtax
Short runLong runShort runLong run
Hu et al10Monthly California time- series, 1984–919.5
Keeler et al8Monthly California time- series, 1980–90—0.3 to —0.4—0.5 to —0.68.8b13b
Sung et al6Annual State Panel (11 western states), 1967–90, Tobacco Institute7—0.4—0.489.8c11.7c
  • a Measured at sample means corresponding to each model.

  • b Measured at sample means for 1980–90.

  • c These figures are based on the price elasticity estimates measured at sample mean values for 1980–90, in order to be comparable to the calculation of price elasticity used in Keeler et al.8 The published results reported in Sung et al,6 on the other hand, are based on the elasticity estimates measured at fiscal year 1988, during which Proposition 99 was passed.