Sensitivity and scenario analysis results for the intervention package of the quitline service and its mass media promotion (for the rest of the lives of the New Zealand population alive in 2011 unless indicated otherwise)
| Interventions | QALYs gained for ethnic groupings combined (95% UI) | Cost savings ($NZ million), for ethnic groupings combined (95% UI) |
| Base-case analysis, 3% discount rate | 4200 (3430 to 5070) | 84.2 (60.4 to 115) |
| Sensitivity analyses | ||
| 0% discount rate | 13 100 (10 700 to 16 000) | 199 (145 to 269) |
| 6% discount rate | 1640 (1350 to 1990) | 37.5 (25.8 to 52.0) |
| Scenario analyses (all the same as the base-case except for the stated difference) | ||
| Māori ‘equity analysis’ as per table 3 | 4830 (3950 to 5830) | 86.7 (62.0 to 118) |
| Scenario A: halving the intervention effect size | 2100 (1710 to 2530) | 37.7 (25.7 to 52.7) |
| Scenario B: quartering the intervention effect size (to address potential residual confounding) | 1050 (868 to 1260) | 14.3 (8.16 to 22.3) |
| Scenario C: intervention implemented for 20 years | 54 100 (43 900 to 65 900) | 1070 (755 to 1470) |
| Scenario D: additional impact on youth uptake of smoking (5% reduction) | 5360 (4420 to 6480) | 113 (82.2 to 152) |
| Scenario E: constrained time horizon 2011–2020 (ie, QALYs and costs only accumulated over this 10-year period) | 423 (expected value) | 9.61 (expected value) |
| Scenario F: as above but constrained time horizon 2011–2030 (ie, a 20-year period) | 688 (expected value) | 22.3 (expected value) |
QALY, quality-adjusted life-years; UI, uncertainty interval.