Summary of key BODE3 tobacco model parameters and those relating to the quitline promotion and service intervention
| Input parameter/s | Source/details | Heterogeneity | Uncertainty |
| Epidemiological parameters | |||
| Background model parameters for business-as-usual smoking trends in the New Zealand population combined with demographic and mortality trends (pre-existing BODE3 MSLT tobacco model) | See previous publications using this model (Blakely et al,7 Pearson et al 12 and van der Deen et al 9). | Variation by age/sex/ ethnicity (Māori/non-Māori) (see online supplementary table A2) | Detailed elsewhere7 and see online supplementary table A2 |
| Epidemiological data on 16 tobacco-related diseases and associated RRs by smoking status (current smoker, ex-smoker and never-smoker) along with time lags (pre-existing BODE3 MSLT tobacco model) | See elsewhere.7 | Variation by age/sex/ ethnicity (but not the RR values by ethnicity) | Detailed elsewhere7 |
| Disease morbidity rates per capita (built into the BODE3 MSLT model) | For each of the 16 diseases, there was an assigned DR (by sex and age) equal to YLDs for that disease (scaled down to adjust for comorbidities) from the 2006 NZBDS projected forward to 2011, divided by the disease prevalence (above). This DR was assigned to the proportion of the cohort in each disease state. No trends. For more details, see elsewhere.7 | Variation by age/sex | Uncertainty:±10% SD, normal distribution |
| Total morbidity per capita in 2011 (built into the BODE3 MSLT model) | The per capita rate of YLD was from the NZBDS by sex, age and ethnicity. No trend (ie, assumed constant into the future). See elsewhere.7 | Variation by age/sex/ ethnicity | Uncertainty:±10% SD, log-normal distribution |
| Apparent effectiveness of the package of mass media promotion and quitline service in New Zealand (for a 1-year intervention and also for a scenario analysis where the same intervention is repeated for 20 years) | See table 2. | Variation by age/sex/ ethnicity (see table 2) | See table 2 |
| Costs | |||
| Background health system costs for all citizens and costs of the 16 tobacco-related diseases (pre-existing BODE3 MSLT tobacco model) | See elsewhere7 and also information on HealthTracker.11 An update on the costing approach is detailed in the online supplementary material in Pearson et al.8 | Variation by age/sex (but not ethnicity) | See elsewhere.7 |
| Mass media promotion of the quitline | The cost of advertising and promotion for the 12-month period in 2013/2014 was $2 165 000, and the staff management costs for ‘marketing and communications’ were $722 000 (total used in the modelling = $2 887 000).4 These costs were CPI-adjusted to produce costs for the base year of 2011, giving an annual cost of $NZ2 791 000. | Not relevant | Uncertainty:±10% SD, gamma distribution |
| Provision of the quitline service | These costs (excluding the above advertising and promotion costs) were calculated from the entire expenditure of the quitline service ($9 287 000 in the 2013/2014 year4) minus the above amount for mass media promotion. This left $6 400 000 per year or $NZ6 187 200 when CPI-adjusted. | Not relevant | Uncertainty:±10% SD, gamma distribution |
BODE3, Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme; CPI, consumer price index; DR, disability rate; MSLT, multistate life-table; NZBDS, New Zealand Burden of Disease Study; RR, relative risk; YLD, years of life lived with disability.