Increasing the TDE versus a baseline projection, health and economic outcomes by disease
| Tobacco-related disease | Baseline incidence (95% CI) | TDE scenario incidence (95% CI) | Incident cases avoidable (95% CI) | Baseline cumulative incidence (95% CI) | TDE scenario cumulative incidence (95% CI) | Cumulative incident cases avoidable (95% CI) | Direct costs avoided (95% CI) /£million |
| CHD | 99 552 (98 825 to 100 279) | 99 552 (98 825 to 100 279) | 0 (−727 to 727) | 1 961 426 (1 959 355 to 1 963 497) | 1 957 284 (1 955 212 to 1 959 355) | 4142 (1380 to 6904) | 5 (2 to 8) |
| COPD | 65 399 (64 672 to 66 126) | 63 219 (62 492 to 63 946) | 2180 (1453 to 2907) | 1 494 025 (1 491 954 to 1 496 096) | 1 474 004 (1 471 932 to 1 476 075) | 20 022 (17 260 to 22 784) | 9 (8 to 10) |
| Stroke | 85 745 (85 018 to 86 472) | 83 566 (82 839 to 84 292) | 2180 (1453 to 2907) | 1 837 844 (1 835 773 to 1 839 915) | 1 817 823 (1 815 752 to 1 819 894) | 20 022 (17 260 to 22 784) | 10 (8 to 12) |
| Smoking-related cancers | 196 197 (195 169 to 197 225) | 193 291 (192 564 to 194 017) | 2907 (1879 to 3935) | 4 290 145 (4 286 763 to 4 293 527) | 4 259 077 (4 255 694 to 4 262 459) | 31 068 (26 926 to 35 210) | 25 (18 to 32) |
| AML | 3633 (3633 to 3633) | 3633 (3633 to 3633) | 0 (0 to 0) | 67 659 (66 969 to 68 349) | 67 659 (66 969 to 68 349) | 0 (−690 to 690) | 13 (7 to 19) |
| Bladder cancer | 13 080 (13 080 to 13 080) | 13 080 (13 080 to 13 080) | 0 (0 to 0) | 289 968 (289 278 to 290 658) | 288 587 (287 897 to 289 278) | 1381 (691 to 2071) | 0 (0 to 0) |
| Bowel cancer | 49 413 (48 686 to 50 140) | 49 413 (48 686 to 50 139) | 0 (−727 to 727) | 956 894 (955 513 to 958 275) | 956 204 (954 823 to 957 585) | 690 (−1381 to 2761) | 0 (−2 to 2) |
| Cervical cancer | 3633 (3633 to 3633) | 3633 (3633 to 3633) | 0 (0 to 0) | 69 730 (69 040 to 70 420) | 69 730 (69 040 to 70 420) | 0 (−690 to 690) | 0 (0 to 0) |
| CML | 727 (727 to 727) | 727 (727 to 727) | 0 (0 to 0) | 15 879 (15 879 to 15 879) | 15 879 (15 879 to 15 879) | 0 (0 to 0) | 0 (0 to 0) |
| Gastric cancer | 8720 (8720 to 8720) | 8720 (8720 to 8720) | 0 (0 to 0) | 176 052 (175 362 to 176 742) | 175 362 (174 671 to 176 052) | 690 (0 to 1380) | 0 (−1 to 1) |
| Hepatic cancer | 5087 (5087 to 5087) | 5087 (5087 to 5087) | 0 (0 to 0) | 106 322 (105 632 to 107 012) | 105 631 (104 941 to 106 322) | 690 (0 to 1380) | 0 (−1 to 1) |
| Laryngeal cancer | 2907 (2907 to 2907) | 2907 (2907 to 2907) | 0 (0 to 0) | 69 730 (69 040 to 70 420) | 69 040 (68 350 to 69 730) | 690 (0 to 1380) | 1 (1 to 1) |
| Lung cancer | 58 859 (58 132 to 59 586) | 56 679 (55 953 to 57 406) | 2180 (1453 to 2907) | 1 427 056 (1 424 985 to 1 429 127) | 1 410 487 (1 408 416 to 1 412 558) | 16 570 (13 808 to 19 332) | 8 (7 to 9) |
| Oesophageal cancer | 10 900 (10 900 to 10 900) | 10 900 (10 900 to 10 900) | 0 (0 to 0) | 272 708 (272 018 to 273 398) | 269 256 (268 566 to 269 946) | 3452 (2762 to 4142) | 2 (1 to 3) |
| Oral cancer | 7993 (7993 to 7993) | 7993 (7993 to 7993) | 0 (0 to 0) | 194 002 (193 312 to 194 692) | 190 550 (189 860 to 191 241) | 3452 (2762 to 4142) | 1 (1 to 1) |
| Ovarian cancer | 8720 (8720 to 8720) | 8720 (8720 to 8720) | 0 (0 to 0) | 176 742 (176 052 to 177 432) | 175 362 (174 671 to 176 052) | 1381 (691 to 2071) | 1 (0 to 2) |
| Pancreatic cancer | 10 900 (10 900 to 10 900) | 10 173 (10 173 to 10 173) | 727 (727 to 727) | 220 928 (220 238 to 221 618) | 219 547 (218 857 to 220 238) | 1381 (691 to 2071) | 0 (−2 to 2) |
| Renal cancer | 11 627 (11 627 to 11 627) | 11 627 (11 627 to 11 627) | 0 (0 to 0) | 246 473 (245 783 to 247 163) | 245 782 (245 092 to 246 473) | 690 (0 to 1380) | 0 (0 to 0) |
| Total | 446 894 (445 268 to 448 519) | 439 627 (438 002 to 441 253) | 7267 (5642 to 8891) | 9 583 440 (9 578 510 to 9 588 371) | 9 508 187 (9 503 256 to 9 513 117) | 75 254 (68 926 to 81 581) | 49 (40 to 57) |
All data are for the UK population in 2035, except the cumulative incidence which is 2015–2035.
AML, acute myeloid leukaemia; CHD, coronary heart disease; CML, chronic myeloid leukaemia; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; TDE, tobacco duty escalator.