Projected baseline and intervention future trends of smoking prevalence in the UK between 2015 and 2035
| Baseline continuation of duty escalator at 2% above inflation | Intervention increasing the TDE at 5% above inflation | |||||
| Smoking prevalence % (all women, 18–100) | Smoking prevalence % (all men, 18–100) | Smoking prevalence % (all women, 18–100) | Smoking prevalence % (all men, 18–100) | Relative reduction in smoking prevalence % (all women, 18–100) | Relative reduction in smoking prevalence % (all men, 18–100) | |
| 2015 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 16.2 | 16.8 | 4.8 | 6.7 |
| 2020 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 14.2 | 15.1 | 5.3 | 5.9 |
| 2025 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 11.4 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 13.9 |
| 2030 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 22.2 | 24.8 |
| 2035 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 35.4 | 39.6 |
TDE, tobacco duty escalator.