Smoking outcomes | Absolute effect† | P value | Relative jump‡ | ||||

Effect (%) | Lower CI (%) | Upper CI (%) | Jump (%) | Lower CI (%) | Upper CI (%) | ||

Current-smokers: prevalence | 2.70** | 0.70 | 4.80 | 0.009 | 17.00 | 3.10 | 30.90 |

Daily smokers: prevalence | 2.43** | 0.74 | 4.12 | 0.005 | 24.59 | 5.47 | 43.70 |

Daily smokers: number of cigarettes smoked per day | −0.196 | −1.187 | 0.796 | 0.70 | −2 | −10 | 7 |

Occasional smokers: prevalence | 0.56 | −0.56 | 1.68 | 0.32 | 9.58 | −10.63 | 29.80 |

Occasional smokers: number of cigarettes smoked on smoking day | −0.087 | −0.623 | 0.448 | 0.75 | −3 | −23 | 17 |

Occasional smokers: number of smoking days, past month | 0.113 | −1.439 | 1.665 | 0.89 | 1 | −19 | 21 |

Average number of cigarettes smoked past month, per person (smokers and non-smokers) | 8.45* | 1.22 | 15.67 | 0.02 | 18 | 3 | 39 |

*P value<0.05.

**P value<0.01.

†The estimated absolute effect in the smoking outcome appearing immediately after the MATS. Positive values reflect increases.

‡The relative effect (‘jump’) in the smoking outcome appearing immediately after the MATS, calculated by dividing the RD model absolute effect by the RD model intercept (the estimated point where the pre-MATS regression line meets the MATS). Positive values reflect increases.

MATS, minimum age for tobacco sales; RD, regression-discontinuity.