Table 4

Policy predictions of product choice shares and percentage changes in product choice shares across alternative flavours

PolicyPanel APanel BPanel C
Permitted flavours by productProduct choice shares (%)Change in choice shares (%)
Combustible cigarettesE-cigarettes
MentholFruit/sweetMentholFruit/sweetCombustible cigaretteE-cigaretteNone of theseCombustible cigaretteE-cigaretteNone of these
Current US policyAllowedBannedAllowedAllowed45.237.517.2N/aN/aN/a
Alternative 1*BanBanBanBan47.929.622.42.7−7.95.2
Alternative 2AllowBanAllowBan45.832.821.40.6−4.74.2
Alternative 3†BanBanAllowAllow40.041.318.8−
Alternative 4BanBanBanAllow41.738.819.4−
Alternative 5AllowBanBanBan53.526.420.28.3−11.13
  • Each row corresponds to a policy scenario; these are defined also in table 1. Panel A, ‘permitted flavours by product’, shows the availability of menthol and fruit/sweet flavours for cigarettes and e-cigarettes: ‘Allowed’ or ‘Allow’ shows when the flavour is permitted, ‘Banned’ or ‘Ban’ shows when the flavour is banned. Panel B, ‘product choice shares’, shows the percentage of predicted choices for each product. Panel C, ‘change in choice shares’, shows the percentage change in predicted choices from the current US policy to the policy scenario, which is the difference between the current policy and the predicted policy share(s). See methods for calculation of the choice shares.

  • *Denotes the policy with the largest increase in the ‘none of these’ option. There may be error from rounding in the estimates.

  • †Denotes the policy with the largest predicted reduction in cigarette choice.