Table 4

Policy predictions of product choice shares and percentage changes in product choice shares across alternative flavours

Policy	Panel A				Panel B			Panel C
	Permitted flavours by product				Product choice shares (%)			Change in choice shares (%)
	Combustible cigarettes		E-cigarettes		Product choice shares (%)			Change in choice shares (%)
	Menthol	Fruit/sweet	Menthol	Fruit/sweet	Combustible cigarette	E-cigarette	None of these	Combustible cigarette	E-cigarette	None of these
Current US policy	Allowed	Banned	Allowed	Allowed	45.2	37.5	17.2	N/a	N/a	N/a
Alternative 1*	Ban	Ban	Ban	Ban	47.9	29.6	22.4	2.7	−7.9	5.2
Alternative 2	Allow	Ban	Allow	Ban	45.8	32.8	21.4	0.6	−4.7	4.2
Alternative 3†	Ban	Ban	Allow	Allow	40.0	41.3	18.8	−5.2	3.8	1.6
Alternative 4	Ban	Ban	Ban	Allow	41.7	38.8	19.4	−3.5	1.3	2.2
Alternative 5	Allow	Ban	Ban	Ban	53.5	26.4	20.2	8.3	−11.1	3

Each row corresponds to a policy scenario; these are defined also in table 1. Panel A, ‘permitted flavours by product’, shows the availability of menthol and fruit/sweet flavours for cigarettes and e-cigarettes: ‘Allowed’ or ‘Allow’ shows when the flavour is permitted, ‘Banned’ or ‘Ban’ shows when the flavour is banned. Panel B, ‘product choice shares’, shows the percentage of predicted choices for each product. Panel C, ‘change in choice shares’, shows the percentage change in predicted choices from the current US policy to the policy scenario, which is the difference between the current policy and the predicted policy share(s). See methods for calculation of the choice shares.
*Denotes the policy with the largest increase in the ‘none of these’ option. There may be error from rounding in the estimates.
†Denotes the policy with the largest predicted reduction in cigarette choice.