Table 2

Linear random effects regression analyses of affordability regressed on time (tax year) and other covariates, for factory-made (FM) cigarette smokers only

	Model 1 n=3420, Obs=7475		Model 2 n=3420, Obs=7475		Model 3 n=3175, Obs=6439
	β	SE	β	SE	β	SE
Time (tobacco tax year)
2002	ref	---	ref	---	ref	---
2003	−0.05	0.23	−0.05	0.23	0.02	0.26
2004	−0.47	0.41	−0.44	0.40	−0.41	0.46
2005	−0.17	0.27	−0.07	0.27	−0.05	0.30
2006	−0.56	0.29	−0.36	0.28	−0.42	0.32
2007	−0.80**	0.30	−0.54	0.30	−0.60	0.34
2008	−0.84**	0.31	−0.38	0.31	−0.53	0.35
2010	−1.80***	0.35	−1.11**	0.35	−1.18**	0.40
2012	−3.10***	0.66	−2.45***	0.66	−2.57**	0.77
2013	−3.42***	0.44	−2.56***	0.44	−2.58***	0.48
2014	−3.71***	0.41	−2.82***	0.42	−3.10***	0.47
Time (tobacco tax year), reverse adjacent contrasts
2003 vs 2002	−0.05	0.23	−0.05	0.23	0.02	0.27
2004 vs 2003	−0.42	0.42	−0.40	0.40	−0.43	0.46
2005 vs 2004	0.31	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.36	0.43
2006 vs 2005	−0.39	0.26	−0.29	0.26	−0.38	0.30
2007 vs 2006	−0.24	0.27	−0.18	0.27	−0.17	0.31
2008 vs 2007	−0.05	0.28	0.16	0.28	0.07	0.32
2010 vs 2008	−0.95**	0.32	−0.73*	0.31	−0.65	0.35
2012 vs 2010	−1.30*	0.66	−1.33*	0.65	−1.39	0.60
2013 vs 2012	−0.32	0.72	−0.11	0.71	−0.01	0.82
2014 vs 2013	−0.30	0.46	−0.25	0.45	−0.52	0.50
Sex
Female	ref	---	ref	---	ref	---
Male	2.11***	0.34	1.93***	0.31	2.05***	0.34
Age (continuous)
Age	0.22***	0.058	0.23***	0.05	0.23***	0.06
Age squared	−0.0036***	0.00059	−0.003***	0.00060	−0.003***	0.00060
Region
London	ref	---	ref	---	ref	---
Yorkshire & The Humber	−1.00	0.69	−0.45	0.64	−0.49	0.70
East Midlands	−0.77	0.74	−0.46	0.69	−0.56	0.75
Eastern	−1.09	0.68	−0.29	0.64	−0.34	0.70
North East	−2.71**	0.86	−1.82*	0.81	−2.43**	0.89
South East	−0.42	0.59	0.19	0.55	0.35	0.60
South West	−1.84*	0.77	−0.71	0.72	−0.65	0.78
West Midlands	−1.57*	0.70	−0.82	0.65	−0.91	0.71
North West	−1.85**	0.65	−0.85	0.61	−0.96	0.66
Wales	−1.59	0.85	−0.33	0.80	−0.35	0.86
Scotland	−3.07***	0.65	−1.50*	0.61	−1.44*	0.65
Northern Ireland	−5.51***	1.00	−4.09***	0.93	−3.90***	0.97
Ethnicity
White	ref	---	ref	---	ref	---
Not white	1.65*	0.72	−0.26	0.68	−0.22	0.73
Education
Low	ref	---	ref	---	ref	---
Moderate	2.17**	0.36	1.45**	0.35	1.58***	0.38
High	5.14**	0.45	4.23**	0.44	4.48***	0.48
Time to first cigarette (TTFC)
Over 60 min	ref	---	ref	---	ref	---
31 to 60 min	−1.25***	0.31	−1.19***	0.30	−1.23***	0.34
6 to 30 min	−2.33***	0.31	−2.21***	0.30	−2.39***	0.34
Within 5 min	−3.87***	0.38	−3.83***	0.37	−4.33***	0.41
Purchase source
UK store-based	ref	---	ref	---	---	---
Non-UK/non-store	4.15***	0.25	4.10***	0.25	---	---

Note: model 1 is the unadjusted effects,of affordability regressed separately on each predictor variable, model 2 is adjusted for all covariates and model 3 is adjusted for all covariates but excluding purchases from non-UK/non-store sources. (table 3)
*P<0.05; **P<0.01; ***P<0.001.