Table 3

Binomial models estimated by generalised estimating equations—ORs

Dependent variable—illegal cigarettes 1, legal cigarettes 0
Variable	Model 1			Model 2
	All	Men	Women	All	Men	Women
Tax per pack
2008 reference
2010	2.09*	2.74*	1.79*	–	–	–
2012	3.34*	4.61*	2.85*	–	–	–
2014	3.28*	3.90*	3.10*	–	–	–
Gender # tax per pack
0 # 2008 reference
0 # 2010	–	–	–	2.07*	2.16*	–
0 # 2012	–	–	–	2.82*	3.08*	–
0 # 2014	–	–	–	2.15*	2.42*	–
1 # 2008	–	–	–	0.63*	–	†
1 # 2010	–	–	–	–	–	1.56*
1 # 2012	–	–	–	1.49*	–	2.29*
1 # 2014	–	–	–	1.40*	–	2.10*
Gender # city
0 # Montevideo reference
0 # Durazno	–	–	–	0.75	0.82	–
0 # Maldonado	–	–	–	0.64	0.83	–
0 # Rivera	–	–	–	14.2*	14.3*	–
0 # Salto	–	–	–	1.86‡	1.88‡	–
1 # Montevideo	–	–	–	1.04	–	†
1 # Durazno	–	–	–	0.32§	–	0.34§
1 # Maldonado	–	–	–	0.90	–	0.89
1 # Rivera	–	–	–	12.9*	–	10.40*
1 # Salto	–	–	–	–	–	0.92
City region	1.49‡	1.76*	1.18*	–	–	–
Illegal cigarettes offer	1.07*	1.08*	1.08*	0.99	0.99	1.00
Age	1.17*	1.31*	1.08	1.20*	1.34*	1.11§
Gender	1.40*	–	–	2.62*	–	–
Education	0.56*	0.79§	0.45*	0.57*	0.79§	0.46*
Income	0.54*	0.45*	0.63*	0.53*	0.45*	0.60*
Consumption intensity	1.04*	1.05*	1.04*	1.04*	1.05*	1.04*
Margins effects (the Stata option dy/dx(varlist) estimate marginal effect of variables in varlist)
Tax per pack
2008 reference	–	–	–	–	–	–
2010	0.065*	0.078*	0.055*	0.051*	0.072*	0.049*
2012	0.121*	0.137*	0.111*	0.093*	0.105*	0.092*
2014	0.118*	0.117*	0.123*	0.074*	0.083*	0.082*
Gender
0 reference	–	–	–	–	–	–
1	–	–	–	0.034*	–	–
City
Montevideo reference	–	–	–	–	–	–
Durazno	–	–	–	−0.059*	−0.019	−0.118
Maldonado	–	–	–	−0.020	−0.044	−0.013
Salto	–	–	–	0.024	0.059‡	−0.009
Rivera	–	–	–	0.432*	0.249*	0.258*
City region	0.044*	0.055*	0.019	–	–	–
Illegal cigarettes offer	0.007*	0.007‡	0.008*	0.000	0.000	0.000
Age	0.017*	0.027*	0.009	0.019*	0.027*	0.011§
Gender	0.037*	–	–	0.100*	–	–
Education	−0.063*	−0.023§	−0.093*	−0.058*	−0.022§	−0.085*
Income	−0.064*	−0.077*	−0.054*	−0.066*	−0.075*	−0.057*
Consumption intensity	0.005*	0.005*	0.005*	0.005*	0.004*	0.005*
Observations	3804	1613	2191	3804	1613	2191

Significant at
*1%.
†In model 2 women, reference is 1#2008 and 1#Montevideo (women=1).
‡5%.
§10%.