Business as usual scenario (no new or additional measures)
| Real price (RMB/20) | Excise share (% price) | Smoking rate (%) | Adult smokers (million) | Cigarette packs (billion) | Real excise revenue (billion RMB) | |
| 2016 estimate | 12.8 | 34.5 | 27.7 | 320 | 117 | 521 |
| 2030 prediction | 14.2 (14.1~14.3) | 33.5 (33~34) | 26.6 (25.6~27.6) | 325 (313~338) | 145 (143~146) | 687 (683~692) |
| Absolute change | 1.3 (1.2~1.4) | −1 (−1~−1) | −1.2 (−2.2~−0.1) | 6 (−7~20) | 27 (26~29) | 166 (162~171) |
| Relative change | 10 (9~11) | −3 (−3~−3) | −4 (−8~−0) | 2 (−2~6) | 23 (22~24) | 32 (31~33) |
Note: US$1=6.64 RMB.