Table 4

Summary findings for the sensitivity analyses of the distributional health and financial consequences of increased tobacco taxes among Colombia’s current urban population, across income quintiles, over 20 years

OutcomeTotalIncome quintile IIncome quintile IIIncome quintile IIIIncome quintile IVIncome quintile V
Price elasticity set to −0.40 across all income quintiles
 Years of life gained176 00032 000 (18%)35 000 (20%)38 000 (22%)35 000 (20%)35 000 (20%)
 Change in annual tax revenues*710 00092 000 (13%)137 000 (19%)155 000 (22%)147 000 (21%)179 000 (25%)
 Change in annual household tobacco expenditure*673 00087 000 (13%)130 000 (19%)147 000 (22%)139 000 (21%)169 000 (25%)
Price elasticity set to −0.78 across all income quintiles
 Years of life gained333 00061 000 (18%)67 000 (20%)72 000 (22%)67 000 (20%)67 000 (20%)
 Change in annual tax revenues*486 00063 000 (13%)94 000 (19%)106 000 (22%)101 000 (21%)122 000 (25%)
 Change in annual household tobacco expenditure*314 00041 000 (13%)61 000 (19%)69 000 (22%)65 000 (21%)79 000 (25%)
Youth price elasticity modifier of 1
 Years of life gained191 00049 000 (26%)46 000 (24%)42 000 (22%)31 000 (16%)23 000 (12%)
 Change in annual tax revenues*762 00086 000 (11%)137 000 (18%)164 000 (22%)164 000 (22%)211 000 (28%)
 Change in annual household tobacco expenditure*756 00078 000 (10%)129 000 (17%)161 000 (21%)167 000 (22%)221 000 (29%)
Mean initial price per pack of cigarettes of COP$3772
 Years of life gained178 00045 000 (26%)43 000 (24%)39 000 (22%)29 000 (16%)22 000 (12%)
 Change in annual tax revenues*833 00091 000 (11%)146 000 (18%)178 000 (21%)181 000 (22%)236 000 (28%)
 Change in annual household tobacco expenditure*748 00069 000 (9%)121 000 (16%)157 000 (21%)169 000 (23%)231 000 (31%)
Cigarette consumption set to eight cigarettes per day across all income quintiles
 Years of life gained191 00049 000 (26%)46 000 (24%)42 000 (22%)31 000 (16%)23 000 (12%)
 Change in annual tax revenues*686 000106 000 (15%)126 000 (18%)148 000 (22%)147 000 (21%)159 000 (23%)
 Change in annual household tobacco expenditure*636 00085 000 (13%)109 000 (17%)137 000 (21%)144 000 (23%)161 000 (25%)
  • The distribution of outcomes across income quintiles is provided in parentheses.

  • *In COP$ million, these estimates are for year 1 after tax policy increases.

  • COP, Colombian pesos.