Table 1

Trend line analysis of smoking rates with deviations from long-term trend with vaping, various surveys

Survey	Measure	Years	Long-term trend	P values	Vaping trend	P values	Durbin-Watson statistics	Adjusted R-squared
Last 30-day use
MTF	10th grade, M and F*	2004–2017	−0.058	<0.001	−0.14	.0002	1.27*	0.954
MTF	12th grade, M and F*	2004–2017	−0.046	<0.001	−0.095	<0.001	1.14*	0.985
NYTS	High school, M and F	2010–2017	−0.082	0.005	−0.22	0.02	3.01*	0.980
YRBS	High school, M and F	2003–2017	−0.062	0.04	−0.52	0.004	3.18*	0.969
MTF	Ages 18–21, M and F	2004–2016	−0.048	<0.001	−0.091	<0.001	2.23	0.973
MTF	Ages 22–24, M and F	2004–2016	−0.047	<0.001	−0.041	0.01	2.92*	0.979
NSDUH	Last 30 days, ages 18–25, M and F	2004–2016	−0.027	<0.0002	−0.092	<0.001	2.20	0.988
Established smoking
MTF	Daily, 10th grade, M and F	2004–2017	−0.070	<0.001	−0.15	0.0002	2.23	0.959
MTF	Daily, 12th grade, M and F	2004–2017	−0.061	<0.001	−0.13	<0.001	1.19*	0.986
MTF	Daily, ages 18–21, M and F	2004–2016	−0.063	<0.001	−0.15	<0.001	2.09	0.977
MTF	Daily, ages 22–24, M and F	2004–2016	−0.062	<0.001	−0.050	0.01	2.65*	0.982
NSDUH	Daily, ages 18–25, M and F	2004–2016	−0.044	<0.001	−0.083	<0.001	2.36	0.992
MTF	Half pack per day, 10th grade, M and F	2004–2017	−0.088	<0.001	−0.200	0.002	2.06	0.948
MTF	Half pack per day, 12th grade, M and F	2004–2017	−0.086	<0.001	−0.150	<0.001	1.97	0.989
MTF	Half pack per day, ages 18–25, M and F	2004–2016	−0.073	<0.001	−0.041	0.029	2.76*	0.986
NHIS	Current smoker, ages 18–24, M	2004–2016	−0.033	0.002	−0.10	0.01	1.54	0.864
NHIS	Current smoker, ages 18–24, F	2004–2016	−0.04	<0.001	−0.059	0.06	2.99*	0.889
Daily use/last 30-day use
MTF	10th grade, M and F	2004–2017	−0.013	0.030	−0.013	0.46	3.16*	0.954
MTF	12th grade, M and F	2004–2017	−0.015	<0.001	−0.037	0.0002	2.01	0.963
MTF	Ages 18–21, M and F	2004–2016	−0.013	<0.001	−0.058	0.0002	2.33	0.941
MTF	Ages 22–24, M and F	2004–2016	−0.015	<0.001	−0.008	0.39	2.62*	0.891
NSDUH	Ages 18–25, M and F	2004–2016	−0.017	<0.0002	−0.0053	0.51	2.29	0.943

Durbin-Watson statistics (k=2, n=13: dl=0.86, du=1.56; k=2, n=14, dl=0.91, du=1.55).
*Indeterminate region.
F, female; M, male; MTF, Monitoring the Future survey; NHIS, National Health Interview Survey; NSDUH, National Survey of Drug Use and Health; NYTS, National Youth Tobacco Survey; YRBS, Youth Risk Behavior Survey.