Trend line analysis of smoking rates with deviations from long-term trend with vaping, various surveys
Survey | Measure | Years | Long-term trend | P values | Vaping trend | P values | Durbin-Watson statistics | Adjusted R-squared |
Last 30-day use | ||||||||
MTF | 10th grade, M and F* | 2004–2017 | −0.058 | <0.001 | −0.14 | .0002 | 1.27* | 0.954 |
MTF | 12th grade, M and F* | 2004–2017 | −0.046 | <0.001 | −0.095 | <0.001 | 1.14* | 0.985 |
NYTS | High school, M and F | 2010–2017 | −0.082 | 0.005 | −0.22 | 0.02 | 3.01* | 0.980 |
YRBS | High school, M and F | 2003–2017 | −0.062 | 0.04 | −0.52 | 0.004 | 3.18* | 0.969 |
MTF | Ages 18–21, M and F | 2004–2016 | −0.048 | <0.001 | −0.091 | <0.001 | 2.23 | 0.973 |
MTF | Ages 22–24, M and F | 2004–2016 | −0.047 | <0.001 | −0.041 | 0.01 | 2.92* | 0.979 |
NSDUH | Last 30 days, ages 18–25, M and F | 2004–2016 | −0.027 | <0.0002 | −0.092 | <0.001 | 2.20 | 0.988 |
Established smoking | ||||||||
MTF | Daily, 10th grade, M and F | 2004–2017 | −0.070 | <0.001 | −0.15 | 0.0002 | 2.23 | 0.959 |
MTF | Daily, 12th grade, M and F | 2004–2017 | −0.061 | <0.001 | −0.13 | <0.001 | 1.19* | 0.986 |
MTF | Daily, ages 18–21, M and F | 2004–2016 | −0.063 | <0.001 | −0.15 | <0.001 | 2.09 | 0.977 |
MTF | Daily, ages 22–24, M and F | 2004–2016 | −0.062 | <0.001 | −0.050 | 0.01 | 2.65* | 0.982 |
NSDUH | Daily, ages 18–25, M and F | 2004–2016 | −0.044 | <0.001 | −0.083 | <0.001 | 2.36 | 0.992 |
MTF | Half pack per day, 10th grade, M and F | 2004–2017 | −0.088 | <0.001 | −0.200 | 0.002 | 2.06 | 0.948 |
MTF | Half pack per day, 12th grade, M and F | 2004–2017 | −0.086 | <0.001 | −0.150 | <0.001 | 1.97 | 0.989 |
MTF | Half pack per day, ages 18–25, M and F | 2004–2016 | −0.073 | <0.001 | −0.041 | 0.029 | 2.76* | 0.986 |
NHIS | Current smoker, ages 18–24, M | 2004–2016 | −0.033 | 0.002 | −0.10 | 0.01 | 1.54 | 0.864 |
NHIS | Current smoker, ages 18–24, F | 2004–2016 | −0.04 | <0.001 | −0.059 | 0.06 | 2.99* | 0.889 |
Daily use/last 30-day use | ||||||||
MTF | 10th grade, M and F | 2004–2017 | −0.013 | 0.030 | −0.013 | 0.46 | 3.16* | 0.954 |
MTF | 12th grade, M and F | 2004–2017 | −0.015 | <0.001 | −0.037 | 0.0002 | 2.01 | 0.963 |
MTF | Ages 18–21, M and F | 2004–2016 | −0.013 | <0.001 | −0.058 | 0.0002 | 2.33 | 0.941 |
MTF | Ages 22–24, M and F | 2004–2016 | −0.015 | <0.001 | −0.008 | 0.39 | 2.62* | 0.891 |
NSDUH | Ages 18–25, M and F | 2004–2016 | −0.017 | <0.0002 | −0.0053 | 0.51 | 2.29 | 0.943 |
Durbin-Watson statistics (k=2, n=13: dl=0.86, du=1.56; k=2, n=14, dl=0.91, du=1.55).
*Indeterminate region.
F, female; M, male; MTF, Monitoring the Future survey; NHIS, National Health Interview Survey; NSDUH, National Survey of Drug Use and Health; NYTS, National Youth Tobacco Survey; YRBS, Youth Risk Behavior Survey.