Table 1

Trend line analysis of smoking rates with deviations from long-term trend with vaping, various surveys

SurveyMeasureYearsLong-term trendP valuesVaping trendP valuesDurbin-Watson
Adjusted R-squared
Last 30-day use
 MTF10th grade, M and F*2004–2017−0.058<0.001−0.14.00021.27*0.954
 MTF12th grade, M and F*2004–2017−0.046<0.001−0.095<0.0011.14*0.985
 NYTSHigh school, M and F2010–2017−0.0820.005−*0.980
 YRBSHigh school, M and F2003–2017−0.0620.04−0.520.0043.18*0.969
 MTFAges 18–21, M and F2004–2016−0.048<0.001−0.091<0.0012.230.973
 MTFAges 22–24, M and F2004–2016−0.047<0.001−0.0410.012.92*0.979
 NSDUHLast 30 days, ages 18–25, M and F2004–2016−0.027<0.0002−0.092<0.0012.200.988
Established smoking
 MTFDaily, 10th grade, M and F2004–2017−0.070<0.001−0.150.00022.230.959
 MTFDaily, 12th grade, M and F2004–2017−0.061<0.001−0.13<0.0011.19*0.986
 MTFDaily, ages 18–21, M and F2004–2016−0.063<0.001−0.15<0.0012.090.977
 MTFDaily, ages 22–24, M and F2004–2016−0.062<0.001−0.0500.012.65*0.982
 NSDUHDaily, ages 18–25, M and F2004–2016−0.044<0.001−0.083<0.0012.360.992
 MTFHalf pack per day, 10th grade, M and F2004–2017−0.088<0.001−0.2000.0022.060.948
 MTFHalf pack per day, 12th grade, M and F2004–2017−0.086<0.001−0.150<0.0011.970.989
 MTFHalf pack per day, ages 18–25, M and F2004–2016−0.073<0.001−0.0410.0292.76*0.986
 NHISCurrent smoker, ages 18–24, M2004–2016−0.0330.002−
 NHISCurrent smoker, ages 18–24, F2004–2016−0.04<0.001−0.0590.062.99*0.889
Daily use/last 30-day use
 MTF10th grade, M and F2004–2017−0.0130.030−0.0130.463.16*0.954
 MTF12th grade, M and F2004–2017−0.015<0.001−0.0370.00022.010.963
 MTFAges 18–21, M and F2004–2016−0.013<0.001−0.0580.00022.330.941
 MTFAges 22–24, M and F2004–2016−0.015<0.001−0.0080.392.62*0.891
 NSDUHAges 18–25, M and F2004–2016−0.017<0.0002−0.00530.512.290.943
  • Durbin-Watson statistics (k=2, n=13:  dl=0.86, du=1.56; k=2, n=14, dl=0.91, du=1.55).

  • *Indeterminate region.

  • F, female; M, male; MTF, Monitoring the Future survey; NHIS, National Health Interview Survey; NSDUH, National Survey of Drug Use and Health; NYTS, National Youth Tobacco Survey; YRBS, Youth Risk Behavior Survey.