Determinants of illicit cigarette purchases (odds ratios)
| Overall | Round 1 | Round 2 | |
| Carton | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Pack | 0.21*** | 0.17* | 0.25* |
| (0.13) | (0.15) | (0.19) | |
| Single | 0.24** | 0.18* | 0.29 |
| (0.14) | (0.17) | (0.22) | |
| Eldorado Park (Gauteng) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Ivory Park (Gauteng) | 0.32** | 0.32** | 0.10 |
| (0.17) | (0.18) | (0.20) | |
| Khayelitsha (Western Cape) | 0.29** | 0.20*** | 0.15 |
| (0.15) | (0.11) | (0.30) | |
| Mitchell’s Plain (Western Cape) | 1.21 | 1.10 | 1.22 |
| (0.20) | (0.25) | (0.34) | |
| Thabong (Free State) | 2.20 | 3.19** | 0.56 |
| (1.13) | (1.79) | (1.10) | |
| Umlazi (KwaZulu-Natal) | 0.54 | 1.13 | 0.07 |
| (0.29) | (0.64) | (0.14) | |
| Foreign-owned spaza shop† | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| SA-owned spaza shop† | 0.40*** | 0.50** | 0.48*** |
| (0.07) | (0.14) | (0.13) | |
| Spaza shop (ownership unknown)† | 0.55 | 1.97 | 0.31 |
| (0.26) | (1.02) | (0.26) | |
| Retail outlet | 0.12*** | 0.10*** | 0.14*** |
| (0.04) | (0.05) | (0.06) | |
| Street stand | 0.56 | 0.39 | 0.85 |
| (0.34) | (0.36) | (0.82) | |
| House shop | 1.04 | 1.93 | 0.79 |
| (0.34) | (0.93) | (0.39) | |
| Female | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Male | 1.50*** | 1.27 | 1.88*** |
| (0.18) | (0.21) | (0.34) | |
| No education to complete primary school | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Incomplete secondary school | 0.66** | 0.64* | 0.67* |
| (0.11) | (0.15) | (0.16) | |
| Complete secondary school | 0.44*** | 0.40*** | 0.45*** |
| (0.08) | (0.10) | (0.12) | |
| Complete tertiary | 0.25*** | 0.18*** | 0.34*** |
| (0.08) | (0.08) | (0.14) | |
| African | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Mixed-race | 0.76 | 0.80 | 0.28 |
| (0.38) | (0.43) | (0.56) | |
| Employed | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Unemployed | 1.65*** | 1.72*** | 1.54*** |
| (0.19) | (0.29) | (0.26) | |
| Not economically active | 0.87 | 0.78 | 0.93 |
| (0.13) | (0.16) | (0.22) | |
| Age | 1.03*** | 1.03*** | 1.03*** |
| (0.00) | (0.01) | (0.01) | |
| Daily cigarette consumption | 1.03*** | 1.02* | 1.04*** |
| (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | |
| SES (index 0–1) | 0.09*** | 0.08*** | 0.05*** |
| (0.03) | (0.04) | (0.02) | |
| Constant | 16.21*** | 24.06*** | 51.61* |
| (13.88) | (28.78) | (111.01) | |
| Observations | 2371 | 1213 | 1158 |
Robust SEs in parentheses. The dependent variable is equal to 1 if the individual purchased cigarettes for R1 or less, and 0 if not. SES: 0 indicates access to none of the listed household resources and 1 indicates access to all 12.
*p<0.01, **p<0.05 and ***p<0.001.
†Spaza shops are informal convenience shops.
SA, South African; SES, socioeconomic status.