Correlates of 'Relapse' among former established users (adults 18+) with no P30D tobacco use at baseline
| Correlates at baseline | Current (everyday/some day) use at follow-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Any Tobacco | Cigarettes | ENDS | Cigars | Hookah | Smokeless | |||||||||||||||||||
| % | 95% CI | aOR1 | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | aOR1 | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | aOR1 | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | aOR1 | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | aOR1 | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | aOR1 | 95% CI | |
| Overall | 6.5 | (5.9–7.2) | N/A | N/A | 4.2 | (3.7–4.7) | N/A | N/A | 17.6 | (15.4–19.9) | N/A | N/A | 6.6 | (5.7–7.6) | N/A | N/A | 9.1 | (7.5–11.0) | N/A | N/A | 6.7 | (5.2–8.6) | N/A | N/A |
| Demographic characteristics | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Age group | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18–24 | 30.2 | (26.5–34.2) | -- | -- | 24.2 | (20.6–28.2) | -- | -- | 19.3 | (15.3–23.9) | -- | -- | 12.9 | (10.2–16.1) | -- | -- | NR | NR | NR | NR | 16.9 | (12.8–22.0) | -- | -- |
| 25–39 | 14.5 | (12.5–16.8) | 0.4 | (0.3–0.6)*** | 8.6 | (7.3–10.0) | 0.7 | (0.5–1.0) | 19.5 | (16.1–23.5) | 1.1 | (0.7–1.5) | 8.9 | (7.0–11.4) | 1 | (0.6–1.5) | NR | NR | NR | NR | 11.7 | (8.7–15.4) | 1 | (0.6–1.8) |
| 40–54 | 6.4 | (5.2–7.9) | 0.2 | (0.1–0.2)*** | 4 | (3.1–5.2) | 0.5 | (0.4–0.8)** | 15 | (11.0–20.1) | 0.8 | (0.5–1.4) | 7.6 | (5.4–10.5) | 1 | (0.5–1.7) | NR | NR | NR | NR | 4.7 | (3.1–7.1) | 0.6 | (0.3–1.2) |
| 55+ | 3.1 | (2.4–4.0) | 0.1 | (0.1–0.1)*** | 2 | (1.5–2.7) | 0.4 | (0.2–0.6)*** | 13.5 | (8.5–20.8) | 0.7 | (0.4–1.4) | 2.4 | (1.5–4.0) | 0.5 | (0.2–1.1) | NR | NR | NR | NR | # | # | # | # |
| Sex | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Female | 5.2 | (4.4–6.2) | -- | -- | 4.7 | (3.9–5.5) | -- | -- | 18.1 | (15.3–21.3) | -- | -- | 6.8 | (5.0–9.1) | -- | -- | 9.3 | (6.8–12.5) | -- | -- | # | # | # | # |
| Male | 7.7 | (6.7–8.8) | 1.7 | (1.3–2.2)*** | 3.7 | (3.2–4.4) | 0.8 | (0.6–1.1) | 17.1 | (14.0–20.7) | 0.9 | (0.6–1.3) | 6.5 | (5.4–7.9) | 1.4 | (0.8–2.3) | 8.9 | (7.0–11.3) | 0.8 | (0.5–1.3) | 6.7 | (5.1–8.7) | 1 | (0.3–3.1) |
| Race/ethnicity | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Non-Hispanic White | 5.9 | (5.1–6.8) | -- | -- | 3.6 | (3.1–4.2) | -- | -- | 17.7 | (15.2–20.4) | -- | -- | 5.4 | (4.3–6.7) | -- | -- | 8.3 | (6.3–11.0) | -- | -- | 7 | (5.3–9.1) | -- | -- |
| Non-Hispanic Black | 10.1 | (7.6–13.2) | 1.5 | (1.1–2.2)* | 6.6 | (4.6–9.4) | 1.4 | (0.8–2.3) | 17 | (10.2–27.0) | 0.9 | (0.5–1.8) | 13.8 | (10.0–18.8) | 2.5 | (1.4–4.7)** | 12.1 | (5.6–24.3) | 1.2 | (0.4–3.5) | # | # | # | # |
| Non-Hispanic Other (includes two or more races) | 6.4 | (3.8–10.6) | 0.8 | (0.4–1.4) | 4.7 | (2.7–8.2) | 0.9 | (0.4–2.0) | 14.2 | (8.2–23.5) | 0.9 | (0.4–1.8) | 4.7 | (2.7–8.3) | 0.9 | (0.5–1.7) | 9 | (4.7–16.3) | 1 | (0.4–2.7) | # | # | # | # |
| Hispanic | 9.6 | (7.6–12.1) | 0.9 | (0.6–1.4) | 7.1 | (5.4–9.3) | 1.4 | (0.9–2.1) | 20.1 | (13.9–28.3) | 1.4 | (0.8–2.4) | 6.6 | (4.4–9.8) | 0.9 | (0.5–1.6) | 10.6 | (7.0–15.9) | 1.2 | (0.6–2.2) | # | # | # | # |
| Sexual orientation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Straight/Heterosexual | 6.5 | (5.9–7.2) | -- | -- | 4 | (3.6–4.6) | -- | -- | 16.4 | (14.1–19.0) | -- | -- | 6.4 | (5.4–7.5) | -- | -- | 8.8 | (7.1–10.9) | -- | -- | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Gay or Lesbian | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Bisexual | 10.2 | (6.5–15.8) | 1.2 | (0.8–1.9) | 10 | (6.3–15.6) | 1.4 | (0.8–2.4) | 28.8 | (19.1–40.8) | 2 | (1.0–3.9) | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Something else | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Educational attainment | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Less than high school or some high school (no diploma) or GED | 6.7 | (4.9–9.2) | -- | -- | 5.9 | (4.3–8.1) | -- | -- | 17.5 | (13.3–22.8) | -- | -- | 5.6 | (3.7–8.4) | -- | -- | 8.1 | (4.6–13.7) | -- | -- | 6.5 | (4.4–9.3) | -- | -- |
| High school graduate—diploma | 6.2 | (4.9–7.9) | 1.1 | (0.6–1.8) | 4.3 | (3.4–5.6) | 0.8 | (0.5–1.3) | 18.9 | (13.1–26.5) | 1.2 | (0.7–2.2) | 7.5 | (5.5–10.3) | 1.3 | (0.8–2.3) | 14.6 | (9.9–21.0) | 1.9 | (0.9–4.3) | 8 | (5.2–12.0) | 1.2 | (0.6–2.3) |
| Some college (no degree) or associate degree | 7.3 | (6.2–8.7) | 1 | (0.6–1.6) | 4.7 | (3.9–5.5) | 0.8 | (0.5–1.3) | 15.9 | (12.9–19.5) | 1 | (0.7–1.6) | 7.8 | (5.9–10.2) | 1.6 | (0.9–2.8) | 10.6 | (7.7–14.4) | 1.3 | (0.6–2.7) | 6.2 | (4.1–9.3) | 1.1 | (0.6–2.0) |
| Bachelor’s degree or more | 5.8 | (4.8–6.9) | 0.9 | (0.6–1.4) | 2.6 | (2.0–3.4) | 0.6 | (0.4–1.1) | 20.5 | (14.2–28.7) | 1.6 | (0.8–3.2) | 4.2 | (2.7–6.5) | 1.4 | (0.7–2.7) | 3.9 | (2.3–6.7) | 0.5 | (0.2–1.3) | 6.4 | (4.2–9.8) | 1 | (0.5–1.9) |
| Annual household income | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| < $25 000 | 8.8 | (7.3–10.5) | -- | -- | 7.2 | (6.0–8.7) | -- | -- | 16 | (12.9–19.6) | -- | -- | 8.4 | (6.6–10.6) | -- | -- | 11 | (8.5–14.2) | -- | -- | 8.1 | (5.8–11.0) | -- | -- |
| $25,000- $74 999 | 6.1 | (5.1–7.4) | 0.8 | (0.6–1.0) | 3.8 | (3.1–4.6) | 0.7 | (0.5–0.9)* | 18.6 | (15.4–22.3) | 1.3 | (0.9–1.9) | 5.6 | (4.3–7.3) | 0.9 | (0.6–1.5) | 8.5 | (6.1–11.8) | 0.8 | (0.5–1.3) | 5.8 | (4.2–7.9) | 0.8 | (0.5–1.3) |
| ≥ $75 000 | 6.4 | (5.3–7.8) | 0.7 | (0.5–1.0) | 2.7 | (2.0–3.7) | 0.6 | (0.3–0.9)* | 17.6 | (12.8–23.6) | 1.3 | (0.7–2.2) | 5.5 | (3.5–8.6) | 1.1 | (0.6–2.2) | # | # | # | # | 7.2 | (4.5–11.4) | 1.1 | (0.6–2.1) |
| Not reported | 3.1 | (1.9–5.2) | 0.5 | (0.3–0.8)** | 3 | (1.8–4.8) | 0.6 | (0.4–1.0) | 20.3 | (12.2–31.8) | 1.2 | (0.6–2.5) | # | # | # | # | 14.5 | (7.8–25.3) | 1.2 | (0.5–2.8) | # | # | # | # |
| Tobacco use correlates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Use of cigarettes | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| No P30D use | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 10.7 | (7.8–14.3) | -- | -- | 4.6 | (3.5–5.9) | -- | -- | 8.1 | (6.2–10.6) | -- | -- | 5.8 | (3.8–8.7) | -- | -- |
| P30D use | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 20.6 | (17.7–23.7) | 2.1 | (1.4–3.4)** | 10.5 | (8.8–12.4) | 1.3 | (0.9–2.1) | 10 | (7.5–13.2) | 0.8 | (0.5–1.3) | 8.4 | (6.9–10.2) | 0.6 | (0.4–1.0) |
| Use of ENDS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| No P30D use | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.5 | (3.1–4.0) | -- | -- | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5.9 | (5.0–7.1) | -- | -- | 8.7 | (6.9–10.8) | -- | -- | 6.1 | (4.5–8.4) | -- | -- |
| P30D use | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 17.9 | (14.9–21.3) | 1.5 | (1.1–2.1)* | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 11 | (7.9–15.0) | 1.1 | (0.7–1.8) | 10.9 | (7.1–16.2) | 0.8 | (0.4–1.7) | 10 | (6.9–14.3) | 0.9 | (0.5–1.7) |
| Use of cigars | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| No P30D use | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 | (3.5–4.5) | -- | -- | 16.8 | (14.4–19.6) | -- | -- | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 8.5 | (6.8–10.5) | -- | -- | 5.9 | (4.5–7.8) | -- | -- |
| P30D use | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 10 | (7.8–12.6) | 1.9 | (1.3–2.8)*** | 21.4 | (16.2–27.8) | 1.1 | (0.7–1.8) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 10.7 | (7.5–15.1) | 1 | (0.5–1.8) | 11.7 | (7.9–17.0) | 1.6 | (0.8–3.2) |
| Use of hookah | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| No P30D use | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 | (3.6–4.5) | -- | -- | 17.3 | (15.2–19.7) | -- | -- | 6.3 | (5.4–7.4) | -- | -- | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 6.7 | (5.2–8.6) | -- | -- |
| P30D use | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 20.4 | (14.5–28.0) | 1.2 | (0.7–1.9) | 20.7 | (13.1–31.2) | 1.1 | (0.6–1.9) | 13.9 | (9.2–20.5) | 1.1 | (0.6–2.0) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | # | # | # | # |
| Use of smokeless | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| No P30D use | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 | (3.6–4.5) | -- | -- | 17.4 | (15.3–19.7) | -- | -- | 6.2 | (5.3–7.2) | -- | -- | 8.8 | (7.1–10.9) | -- | -- | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| P30D use | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 6.7 | (4.9–9.1) | 1.4 | (0.9–2.2) | 19.9 | (12.4–30.5) | 1.2 | (0.6–2.5) | 11.6 | (7.9–16.8) | 1.7 | (0.9–3.2) | # | # | # | # | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Time since last use | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Between 30 days −1 year ago | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 25.7 | (22.9–28.8) | 13 | (8.8–19.2)*** | 19.5 | (17.0–22.3) | 1.8 | (0.8–4.3) | 16.3 | (13.4–19.7) | 6.7 | (3.7–12.3)*** | 14.6 | (11.5–18.3) | 3.5 | (1.3–9.3)* | 27.3 | (22.5–32.8) | 11 | (5.2–23.5)*** |
| Between 1–2 years ago | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 8.5 | (6.5–11.0) | 3.4 | (2.3–5.1)*** | 11.3 | (7.5–16.7) | 1.1 | (0.4–3.1) | 11.3 | (8.5–14.9) | 5 | (2.5–9.8)*** | 9.7 | (6.8–13.6) | 2.3 | (0.9–5.9) | 9.4 | (6.5–13.4) | 3.3 | (1.3–8.1)* |
| More than 2 years ago | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.6 | (1.2–2.0) | -- | -- | # | # | # | # | 1.9 | (1.2–3.0) | -- | -- | # | # | # | # | # | # | # | # |
The percentages and ORs in the table are based on weighted data.
Denominator N (unweighted number of observations) for aOR in ‘Any tobacco’=6109.
Denominator N (unweighted number of observations) for aOR in ‘Cigarettes’=7032.
Denominator N (unweighted number of observations) for aOR in ‘ENDS’=1229.
Denominator N (unweighted number of observations) for aOR in ‘Cigars’=2393.
Denominator N (unweighted number of observations) for aOR in ‘Hookah’=906.
Denominator N (unweighted number of observations) for aOR in ‘Smokeless’”=1836.
Tobacco product types were categorised into five groups: cigarettes, ENDS (e-cigarettes at Wave 1, and e-cigarettes, e-cigars, e-pipes, and e-hookah at Waves 2 and 3), cigars (traditional cigars, cigarillos, filtered cigars), hookah and smokeless tobacco (loose snus, moist snuff, dip, spit, chewing tobacco and snus pouches).
For each of the five tobacco products, and for any tobacco product, use is defined with respect to the given tobacco product/any tobacco product:
Former established use is defined as having used a product fairly regularly (or smoked more than 100 cigarettes in their lifetime), and currently does not use tobacco at all and has not used the product in the past 30 days.
Current (every day/some day) use is defined as using every day or some days.
P30D use is defined as use on at least one of the past 30 days.
The outcome ‘relapse’ is defined as current (every day/some day) use at follow-up (vs no use at all) among former established users at baseline.
Since no P30D use at baseline is defined with respect to each tobacco product, P30D use of ‘other’ tobacco products at baseline are considered as correlates of 'relapse' of the given tobacco product at follow-up.
GEE logistic regression analyses were used to assess correlates of 'relapse' at follow-up among former established users at baseline over a 1 year period of time (ie, Wave 1-Wave 2 and Wave 2-Wave 3), including up to two change data points per individual and statistically controlling for the correlation among observations from the same individuals.
All correlates reflect baseline measurement for each wave pair (eg, when evaluating change between Wave 1 and Wave 2, the age correlate reflects a person’s age at Wave 1, and when evaluating change between Wave 2 and Wave 3, the age correlate reflects a person’s age at Wave 2).
1Analyses adjusted for age group, sex, race/ethnicity, sexual orientation, educational attainment, annual household income, each tobacco use correlate and wave.
#Estimates with either a relative standard error greater than 30 or a corresponding denominator less than 50 have been suppressed.
*p<0.05; **p<0.01; ***p<0.001.
aOR, adjusted Odds Ratio; ENDS, electronic nicotine delivery systems; GED, General Education Development (High School Equivalency Certificate); N/A, not applicable; NR, not reported-- variables in which at least one level had a numerator N < 3 were not reported; P30D, past 30 days.