Summary of Transitions in P30D Tobacco Use at W3 (2015/16) among W1 (2013/14) Never Tobacco Users Who Initiate Cigarette Use at W2 (2014/15)
| Youth | Young Adults | Adults 25+ | ||||||||||
| Pathways | Unweighted Sample Size | Weighted Sample Size | Weighted % | CI | Unweighted Sample Size | Weighted Sample Size | Weighted % | CI | Unweighted Sample Size | Weighted Sample Size | Weighted % | CI |
| W2 Initiate Exclusive CIGS - W3 No Tobacco | 28 | 53,343 | 40.3 | (28.7-53.1) | 8 | 42,448 | 39.8† | (18.3-66.1) | 7 | 146,299 | 57.4† | (27.1-83.0) |
| W2 Initiate Exclusive CIGS - W3 Exclusive CIGS | 11 | 24,428 | 18.5 | (10.3-30.8) | 5 | 29,320 | 27.5† | (9.5-57.9) | 4 | 108,544 | 42.6† | (17.0-72.9) |
| W2 Initiate Exclusive CIGS - W3 Exclusive ENDS* | 3 | 7,208 | 5.4† | (1.9-14.8) | 1 | 7,740 | 7.3† | (0.9-41.4) | - | - | - | - |
| W2 Initiate Exclusive CIGS - W3 CIGS+ENDS PTU | 10 | 25,089 | 19 | (10.9-31.0) | 2 | 15,303 | 14.3† | (3.3-45.4) | - | - | - | - |
| W2 Initiate Exclusive CIGS - W3 CIGS PTU w/o ENDS | 7 | 18,508 | 14.0† | (6.7-27.0) | 1 | 8,666 | 8.1† | (1.0-42.5) | - | - | - | - |
| W2 Initiate Exclusive CIGS - W3 ENDS PTU w/o CIGS | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| W2 Initiate Exclusive CIGS - W3 Non-ENDS/Non-CIGS | 2 | 3,677 | 2.8† | (0.6-11.4) | 1 | 3,180 | 3.0† | (0.4-21.2) | - | - | - | - |
| W2 Initiate CIGS PTU w/o ENDS - W3 No Tobacco | 4 | 7,864 | 15.4† | (4.6-40.9) | 2 | 9,811 | 11.4† | (2.1-43.1) | 2 | 58,593 | 53.4† | (11.7-90.8) |
| W2 Initiate CIGS PTU w/o ENDS - W3 CIGS PTU w/o ENDS | 3 | 7,014 | 13.7† | (4.9-33.0) | 3 | 14,819 | 17.2† | (4.0-51.0) | 1 | 30,611 | 27.9† | (3.2-81.8) |
| W2 Initiate CIGS PTU w/o ENDS - W3 Exclusive CIGS | 4 | 7,755 | 15.2† | (4.6-40.2) | 1 | 5,217 | 6.1† | (0.6-40.8) | - | - | - | - |
| W2 Initiate CIGS PTU w/o ENDS - W3 Exclusive ENDS | 2 | 4,153 | 8.1† | (2.0-28.2) | 1 | 5,062 | 5.9† | (0.6-39.1) | - | - | - | - |
| W2 Initiate CIGS PTU w/o ENDS - W3 CIGS+ENDS PTU | 6 | 13,815 | 27.1† | (12.2-49.9) | 1 | 3,038 | 3.5† | (0.3-30.5) | - | - | - | - |
| W2 Initiate CIGS PTU w/o ENDS - W3 ENDS PTU w/o CIGS | 4 | 9,474 | 18.6† | (5.5-47.1) | 1 | 8,734 | 10.1† | (1.2-51.5) | - | - | - | - |
| W2 Initiate CIGS PTU w/o ENDS - W3 Non-ENDS/Non-CIGS | 1 | 948 | 1.9† | (0.2-13.0) | 4 | 39,443 | 45.8† | (14.9-80.3) | 1 | 20,514 | 18.7† | (1.9-73.2) |
Analysis included youth (ages 12-17), young adult (ages 18-24), and adult 25+ (ages 25 and older) W1 never tobacco users who initiated cigarette use at W2 with data at all three waves. Respondent age was calculated based on age at W1. W3 longitudinal (all-waves) weights were used to calculate estimates.
W3 tobacco use groups among W1 never tobacco users who initiate cigarette use at W2:
1) No tobacco: Defined as no use of any tobacco products within the past 30 days.
2) Exclusive CIGS: Defined as use of only cigarettes in the past 30 days.
3) Exclusive ENDS: Defined as use of only ENDS in the past 30 days.
4) CIGS+ENDS PTU: Defined as use of only both cigarettes and ENDS in the past 30 days.
5) CIGS PTU w/o ENDS: Defined as use of cigarettes and any other tobacco product(s) except for ENDS in the past 30 days.
6) ENDS PTU w/o CIGS: Defined as use of ENDS and any other tobacco product(s) except for cigarettes in the past 30 days.
7) Non-CIGS, Non-ENDS: Defined as use of one or more tobacco products, excluding cigarettes and ENDS in the past 30 days.
Pathways of W2 Initiators of CIGS+ENDS PTU are reported in table 3a.
*Respondents were asked about “e-cigarettes” at W1 and “e-products” (i.e., e-cigarettes, e-cigars, e-pipes, and e-hookah) at W2 and W3.
The logit-transformation method was used to calculate confidence intervals.
†Estimate should be interpreted with caution because it has low statistical precision. It is based on a denominator sample size of less than 50, or the coefficient of variation of the estimate or its complement is larger than 30%.
Analyses were run on the W1, W2, and W3 Public Use Files (https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR36498.v8).
+, and; -, not applicable because of zero cases; CI, confidence interval; CIGS, cigarettes; ENDS, electronic nicotine delivery system; P30D, past 30-day; PTU, polytobacco use; W1, Wave; W2, Wave 2; W3, Wave 3; w/o, without.