Table 3

Correlates of initiating P30D use among never users (adults 18+ years) at baseline

P30D use at follow-up
Any tobaccoCigarettesENDSCigarsHookahSmokeless
Correlates at baseline%95% CIaOR1 95% CI%95% CIaOR1 95% CI%95% CIaOR1 95% CI%95% CIaOR1 95% CI%95% CIaOR1 95% CI%95% CIaOR1 95% CI
Overall2.2(1.9-2.7)N/AN/A1.4(1.2-1.7)N/AN/A1.5(1.3-1.6)N/AN/A1.4(1.2-1.7)N/AN/A0.6(0.6-0.7)N/AN/A0.3(0.3-0.4)N/AN/A
Demographic characteristics
 Age group
  18-247.0(6.0-8.3)----3.6(3.1-4.2)----4.5(3.9-5.1)----3.9(3.4-4.5)----3.6(3.1-4.3)----0.8(0.6-1.0)----
  25-392.7(1.9-3.8)0.4(0.3-0.6)***1.6(1.1-2.4)0.6(0.4-0.9)**1.8(1.5-2.1)0.4(0.3-0.5)***2.0(1.5-2.6)0.5(0.4-0.7)***1.0(0.8-1.3)0.3(0.2-0.4)***0.5(0.3-0.7)0.7(0.4-1.0)
  40-540.6(0.3-1.1)0.1(0.1-0.3)***1.4(1.2-1.7)0.3(0.2-0.4)***1.0(0.8-1.4)0.2(0.2-0.3)***0.2(0.1-0.3)0.1(0.0-0.1)***0.2(0.1-0.5)0.5(0.2-1.1)
  55+0.6(0.5-0.8)0.1(0.1-0.2)***0.6(0.4-0.9)0.1(0.1-0.2)***0.1(0.1-0.2)0.0(0.0-0.1)***0.2(0.1-0.3)0.3(0.2-0.7)**
 Sex
  Female1.8(1.3-2.4)----1.2(0.9-1.6)----1.2(1.1-1.4)----1.0(0.8-1.2)----0.5(0.4-0.7)----0.2(0.1-0.2)----
  Male3.1(2.4-3.9)1.5(1.0-2.3)*1.7(1.4-2.2)1.2(0.8-1.8)1.8(1.5-2.0)1.0(0.8-1.2)2.3(1.8-2.9)2.1(1.6-2.8)***0.8(0.6-0.9)1.2(0.9-1.7)0.6(0.4-0.7)2.7(1.8-4.1)***
 Race/ethnicity
  Non-Hispanic White1.7(1.3-2.2)----1.0(0.7-1.3)----1.4(1.2-1.6)----1.1(0.9-1.3)----0.4(0.3-0.5)----0.3(0.2-0.4)----
  Non-Hispanic Black3.5(2.6-4.6)1.8(1.2-2.7)**1.8(1.3-2.5)1.4(0.9-2.1)1.7(1.4-2.1)0.9(0.7-1.1)2.9(2.3-3.6)2.4(1.8-3.1)***1.5(1.2-1.9)3.0(2.0-4.6)***0.4(0.2-0.7)0.7(0.3-1.7)
  Non-Hispanic Other (includes two or more races)1.4(0.8-2.7)0.8(0.4-1.4)0.8(0.4-1.6)0.9(0.5-1.8)1.4(1.0-2.1)1.3(0.9-1.9)0.9(0.5-1.5)0.6(0.4-1.0)0.8(0.5-1.3)1.8(1.0-3.2)*
  Hispanic3.0(2.0-4.3)1.5(0.9-2.4)2.3(1.7-3.2)1.8(1.2-2.9)**1.7(1.4-2.1)0.9(0.7-1.2)1.7(1.2-2.3)1.0(0.6-1.5)1.0(0.7-1.3)1.8(1.1-3.0)*0.4(0.2-0.5)0.7(0.4-1.2)
 Sexual orientation
  Straight/Heterosexual2.2(1.8-2.7)----1.3(1.1-1.6)----1.4(1.3-1.6)----1.4(1.2-1.6)----0.6(0.5-0.7)----0.3(0.3-0.4)----
  Gay or Lesbian2.2(1.2-4.0)1.1(0.6-1.8)
  Bisexual4.5(2.6-7.7)2.4(1.2-4.5)**4.6(3.2-6.5)2.0(1.3-2.9)***2.3(1.3-3.9)0.9(0.5-1.4)1.6(0.9-2.7)1.2(0.6-2.1)
  Something else1.7(0.9-3.4)1.0(0.5-1.9)
 Educational attainment
  Less than high school or some high school (no diploma) or GED3.0(2.0-4.5)----2.5(1.6-3.8)----2.0(1.6-2.4)----2.1(1.7-2.5)----0.8(0.6-1.1)----0.6(0.4-0.8)----
  High school graduate—diploma3.1(2.3-4.2)1.0(0.6-1.7)1.8(1.4-2.5)0.7(0.4-1.3)1.8(1.5-2.1)0.9(0.7-1.1)2.0(1.6-2.5)1.1(0.8-1.5)0.8(0.7-1.1)1.1(0.8-1.6)0.3(0.2-0.5)0.7(0.4-1.2)
  Some college (no degree) or associate degree2.1(1.5-2.8)0.6(0.4-1.0)1.2(0.9-1.7)0.5(0.3-0.8)**1.9(1.6-2.2)0.8(0.6-1.0)*1.3(1.1-1.6)0.7(0.5-1.0)0.7(0.5-0.8)0.9(0.7-1.4)0.3(0.2-0.5)0.6(0.3-1.2)
  Bachelor’s degree or more0.6(0.5-0.8)0.3(0.2-0.4)***0.6(0.4-1.0)0.6(0.3-1.1)0.3(0.2-0.5)0.8(0.5-1.4)
 Annual household income
  < $25,0003.0(2.3-4.0)----2.2(1.6-2.9)----2.3(2.0-2.6)----2.4(2.0-2.8)----1.2(1.0-1.4)----0.5(0.4-0.7)----
  $25,000-$74,9992.1(1.5-3.0)1.1(0.7-1.6)1.2(0.8-1.6)0.8(0.5-1.2)1.5(1.2-1.7)0.8(0.6-1.0)1.0(0.8-1.3)0.6(0.5-0.8)***0.4(0.3-0.6)0.6(0.4-0.8)**0.3(0.2-0.5)0.8(0.4-1.3)
  ≥ $75,0001.1(0.7-1.8)0.7(0.4-1.3)0.8(0.5-1.2)0.7(0.4-1.2)0.9(0.7-1.1)0.6(0.4-0.7)***0.7(0.5-1.1)0.6(0.4-0.8)**0.3(0.2-0.6)0.7(0.4-1.4)0.2(0.1-0.3)0.5(0.3-1.0)*
  Not reported2.9(1.9-4.2)1.1(0.7-1.9)1.1(0.8-1.6)0.7(0.5-0.9)*1.5(0.9-2.4)0.8(0.4-1.3)
Tobacco use correlates
 Use of cigarettes
  Never useN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0.6(0.5-0.8)----0.9(0.6-1.2)----0.6(0.5-0.8)----0.2(0.1-0.4)----
  Ever useN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A2.0(1.8-2.2)3.1(2.4-4.0)***2.0(1.8-2.4)3.3(2.4-4.6)***0.6(0.5-0.8)1.3(0.8-2.1)0.4(0.3-0.5)1.5(0.8-2.8)
 Use of ENDS
  Never useN/AN/AN/AN/A1.2(0.9-1.5)----N/AN/AN/AN/A1.1(0.9-1.3)----0.5(0.4-0.6)----0.2(0.2-0.3)----
  Ever useN/AN/AN/AN/A8.9(6.9-11.5)3.2(2.1-4.9)***N/AN/AN/AN/A4.4(3.8-5.1)1.8(1.5-2.2)***1.7(1.4-2.0)2.1(1.5-3.1)***0.9(0.7-1.1)2.4(1.7-3.4)***
 Use of cigars
  Never useN/AN/AN/AN/A1.2(1.0-1.5)----0.9(0.7-1.0)N/AN/AN/AN/A0.5(0.4-0.7)----0.2(0.2-0.3)----
  Ever useN/AN/AN/AN/A3.3(2.5-4.3)2.1(1.3-3.2)**2.8(2.5-3.1)2.1(1.6-2.6)***N/AN/AN/AN/A0.9(0.8-1.1)1.6(1.2-2.3)**0.5(0.4-0.7)1.0(0.7-1.5)
 Use of hookah
  Never useN/AN/AN/AN/A1.2(0.9-1.5)----1.1(1.0-1.3)----1.2(1.0-1.4)----N/AN/AN/AN/A0.3(0.2-0.3)----
  Ever useN/AN/AN/AN/A4.1(3.2-5.4)1.0(0.6-1.6)4.5(4.0-5.0)1.7(1.4-2.1)***4.4(3.7-5.2)1.6(1.2-2.0)***N/AN/AN/AN/A0.8(0.7-1.0)1.5(1.0-2.3)
 Use of smokeless
  Never useN/AN/AN/AN/A1.4(1.1-1.7)----1.3(1.1-1.4)----1.3(1.2-1.6)----0.6(0.6-0.8)----N/AN/AN/AN/A
  Ever useN/AN/AN/AN/A1.8(1.0-3.3)1.3(0.7-2.2)2.8(2.4-3.4)1.3(1.0-1.6)*3.3(2.4-4.6)1.2(0.8-1.8)0.6(0.5-0.9)0.8(0.5-1.3)N/AN/AN/AN/A
  • The percentages and ORs in the table are based on weighted data.

  • Overall unweighted number of individuals contributing to the table=25 384.

  • Denominator N (unweighted number of observations) for aOR in ‘any tobacco’=6903.

  • Denominator N (unweighted number of observations) for aOR in ‘cigarettes’=10 592.

  • Denominator N (unweighted number of observations) for aOR in ‘ENDS’=27 087.

  • Denominator N (unweighted number of observations) for aOR in ‘cigars’=20 464.

  • Denominator N (unweighted number of observations) for aOR in ‘hookah’=30 442.

  • Denominator N (unweighted number of observations) for aOR in ‘smokeless’=35 706.

  • Tobacco product types were categorised into five groups: cigarettes, ENDS (e-cigarettes at Wave 1, and e-cigarettes, e-cigars, e-pipes and e-hookah at Waves 2 and 3), cigars (ie, traditional cigars, cigarillos, filtered cigars), hookah and smokeless tobacco (ie, loose snus, moist snuff, dip, spit, chewing tobacco and snus pouches).

  • For each of the five tobacco products, and for any tobacco product, use is defined with respect to the given tobacco product/any tobacco product.

  • Never use is defined as never having used the product, even one or two times.

  • P30D use is defined as use in the past 30 days.

  • The outcome ‘initiating P30D’ is defined as P30D use at follow-up (vs no P30D use at follow-up) among never users at baseline.

  • Since never use at baseline is defined with respect to each tobacco product, never/ever use of ‘other’ tobacco products at baseline are considered as correlates of initiating P30D use of the given tobacco product at follow-up.

  • GEE logistic regression analyses were used to assess correlates of initiating P30D use at follow-up among never users at baseline over a 1-year period of time (ie, Wave 1–Wave 2 and Wave 2–Wave 3), including up to two change data points per individual and statistically controlling for the correlation among observations from the same individuals.

  • All correlates reflect baseline measurement for each wave pair (eg, when evaluating change between Wave 1 and Wave 2, the age correlate reflects a person’s age at Wave 1, and when evaluating change between Wave 2 and Wave 3, the age correlate reflects a person’s age at Wave 2).

  • 1Analyses adjusted for age group, sex, sexual orientation, race/ethnicity, each tobacco use correlate, educational attainment, income and wave.

  • Estimates with relative SE >30 or denominator <50 are suppressed.

  • *P<0.05. **p<0.01. ***p<0.001.

  • aOR, adjusted OR; ENDS, electronic nicotine delivery system; GEE, generalised estimating equation; N/A, not applicable; P30D, past 30 day.