Future HALYs per 1000 people under business as usual, and HALYs gained by eradication of tobacco, the tobacco tax intervention and tobacco-free generation (0% discount rate; 95% uncertainty intervals for HALYs gained in parentheses)*
| Business as usual | Incremental HALYs gained compared with BAU | ||||||||||||
| Eradicating tobacco | Tax intervention | Tobacco-free generation | |||||||||||
| n in 2016 | Lifetime | 2016–2025 | 2026–2035 | Lifetime | 2016–2025 | 2026–2035 | Lifetime | 2016–2025 | 2026–2035 | Lifetime | 2016–2025 | 2026–2035 | |
| Total | 579 874 | 35 800 (34 500 to 37 000) | 8600 (8390 to 8780) | 7600 (7380 to 7800) | 1510 (910 to 2280) | 104 (67 to 147) | 162 (103 to 228) | 370 (177 to 630) | 9 (5 to 16) | 30 (15 to 49) | 798 (403 to 1321) | 15 (9 to 23) | 49 (26 to 76) |
| Sex | |||||||||||||
| Males | 294 370 | 35 900 (34 600 to 37 000) | 8650 (8460 to 8830) | 7640 (7440 to 7820) | 2010 (1230 to 2980) | 136 (92 to 183) | 210 (143 to 281) | 489 (237 to 821) | 13 (7 to 20) | 39 (21 to 63) | 1052 (514 to 1710) | 21 (13 to 31) | 64 (36 to 96) |
| Females | 285 504 | 35 700 (34 300 to 37 000) | 8540 (8320 to 8740) | 7560 (7320 to 7770) | 1004 (424 to 1870) | 71 (35 to 119) | 112 (56 to 185) | 247 (76 to 538) | 6 (2 to 12) | 20 (7 to 39) | 535 (158 to 1218) | 10 (4 to 18) | 33 (11 to 69) |
| Sex and age† | |||||||||||||
| Males | |||||||||||||
| 0–14 years | 112 270 | 49 700 (48 300 to 51 000) | 9330 (9200 to 9440) | 8980 (8830 to 9130) | 2130 (1020 to 3600) | 13 (7 to 19) | 113 (62 to 177) | 779 (335 to 1379) | 4 (2 to 7) | 42 (20 to 70) | 2123 (968 to 3616) | 13 (7 to 19) | 112 (60 to 176) |
| 15–24 years | 61 164 | 38 500 (37 200 to 39 600) | 9040 (8870 to 9190) | 8440 (8250 to 8610) | 2310 (1430 to 3320) | 181 (117 to 249) | 212 (134 to 292) | 554 (293 to 892) | 27 (14 to 43) | 53 (29 to 85) | 1170 (670 to 1740) | 78 (47 to 113) | 102 (60 to 147) |
| 25–44 years | 75 858 | 27 000 (25 900 to 28 000) | 8530 (8310 to 8730) | 7250 (7010 to 7480) | 2280 (1580 to 3030) | 247 (173 to 324) | 324 (233 to 416) | 263 (152 to 406) | 16 (9 to 25) | 37 (21 to 57) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 45–64 years | 34 980 | 14 700 (13 900 to 15 400) | 7200 (6890 to 7500) | 4600 (4340 to 4850) | 1040 (700 to 1430) | 220 (148 to 295) | 311 (212 to 416) | 73 (39 to 119) | 10 (5 to 16) | 23 (13 to 37) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 65+ years | 10 098 | 6120 (5640 to 6560) | 4750 (4390 to 5080) | 1230 (1120 to 1330) | 201 (116 to 309) | 112 (65 to 168) | 72 (40 to 114) | 6 (1 to 15) | 2 (0 to 6) | 3 (0 to 7) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Females | |||||||||||||
| 0–14 years | 105 480 | 50 200 (48 500 to 51 800) | 9300 (9160 to 9420) | 8910 (8720 to 9080) | 1150 (260 to 2710) | 6 (2 to 13) | 59 (17 to 130) | 423 (86 to 1048) | 2 (1 to 5) | 22 (6 to 53) | 1130 (280 to 2750) | 6 (2 to 13) | 58 (16 to 134) |
| 15–24 years | 56 968 | 38 800 (37 300 to 40 200) | 8930 (8730 to 9110) | 8390 (8150 to 8600) | 1160 (500 to 2090) | 88 (41 to 153) | 117 (53 to 207) | 285 (104 to 558) | 13 (5 to 26) | 30 (11 to 57) | 593 (235 to 1122) | 37 (16 to 67) | 55 (23 to 104) |
| 25–44 years | 78 598 | 27 000 (25 700 to 28 200) | 8370 (8100 to 8610) | 7230 (6940 to 7510) | 1032 (526 to 1709) | 127 (64 to 206) | 167 (87 to 268) | 114 (51 to 214) | 8 (3 to 15) | 18 (8 to 33) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 45–64 years | 34 193 | 14 600 (13 700 to 15 400) | 7140 (6780 to 7480) | 4690 (4390 to 4960) | 493 (251 to 829) | 123 (62 to 203) | 162 (84 to 269) | 22 (0 to 57) | 3 (0 to 9) | 8 (0 to 20) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 65+ years | 10 265 | 5770 (5280 to 6210) | 4580 (4200 to 4920) | 1090 (980 to 1180) | 79 (35 to 151) | 51 (23 to 94) | 24 (11 to 48) | 0 (0 to 2) | 0 (0 to 1) | 0 (0 to 1) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
*Results at 0% discount rate; HALYs gained are rounded to three meaningful digits.
†Age in 2016.
BAU, business as usual; HALY, health-adjusted life years.