Survey | Year | Total adult population (million) | Smoking prevalence (%) | Smokers, n (million) | Average daily intensity | Annual self-reported consumption (billion) | Tax-paid consumption (National Treasury and Department of Trade and Industry) (billion) |
AMPS | 2002 | 31.58 | 25.15 | 7.94 | 9.07 | 26.31 | 26.13 |
(24.50 to 25.80) | (7.74 to 8.15) | (8.87 to 9.28) | (25.26 to 27.36) | ||||
2003 | 32.19 | 23.74 | 7.64 | 9.16 | 25.56 | 26.02 | |
(23.05 to 24.44) | (7.42 to 7.87) | (8.94 to 9.39) | (24.48 to 26.64) | ||||
2004 | 32.79 | 24.45 | 8.02 | 8.89 | 26.01 | 25.64 | |
(23.74 to 25.17) | (7.78 to 8.25) | (8.67 to 9.10) | (24.91 to 27.11) | ||||
2005 | 33.36 | 24.29 | 8.10 | 8.82 | 26.09 | 25.70 | |
(23.57 to 25.02) | (7.86 to 8.35) | (8.60 to 9.04) | (24.93 to 27.25) | ||||
2006 | 33.87 | 24.57 | 8.32 | 8.73 | 26.52 | 26.15 | |
(23.85 to 25.30) | (8.08 to 8.57) | (8.51 to 8.94) | (25.30 to 27.73) | ||||
2007 | 34.36 | 25.25 | 8.68 | 8.71 | 27.58 | 26.65 | |
(24.52 to 25.97) | (8.43 to 8.93) | (8.50 to 8.92) | (26.30 to 28.87) | ||||
2008 | 34.85 | 23.50 | 8.19 | 8.66 | 25.87 | 27.15 | |
(22.73 to 24.26) | (7.92 to 8.46) | (8.43 to 8.88) | (24.41 to 27.33) | ||||
2009 | 35.35 | 23.30 | 8.24 | 8.77 | 26.38 | 26.12 | |
(22.61 to 23.99) | (7.99 to 8.48) | (8.55 to 9.00) | (25.02 to 27.74) | ||||
2010 | 35.89 | 19.77 | 7.09 | 9.21 | 23.85 | 23.56 | |
(19.11 to 20.42) | (6.86 to 7.33) | (8.98 to 9.45) | (22.65 to 25.06) | ||||
2011 | 36.48 | 20.17 | 7.36 | 9.10 | 24.41 | 22.78 | |
(19.51 to 20.82) | (7.12 to 7.60) | (8.88 to 9.32) | (23.13 to 25.70) | ||||
2012 | 37.11 | 21.08 | 7.82 | 9.10 | 25.98 | 23.06 | |
(20.41 to 21.75) | (7.57 to 8.07) | (24.75 to 27.21) | |||||
2013 | 37.76 | 20.97 | 7.92 | 9.10 | 26.30 | 22.18 | |
(20.30 to 21.63) | (7.67 to 8.17) | (25.11 to 27.49) | |||||
2014 | 38.42 | 20.78 | 7.98 | 9.10 | 26.51 | 23.17 | |
(20.12 to 21.43) | (7.73 to 8.23) | (25.29 to 27.73) | |||||
2015 | 39.07 | 26.51 | 23.02 | ||||
2016 | 39.67 | 26.51 | 22.01 | ||||
2017 | 40.28 | 26.51 | 19.42 | ||||
NIDS | 2008 | 34.85 | 21.12 | 7.36 | 8.52 | 22.90 | 27.15 |
(20.28 to 21.97) | (7.07 to 7.65) | (8.21 to 8.84) | (20.78 to 25.01) | ||||
2010 | 35.89 | 18.07 | 6.49 | 8.82 | 20.87 | 23.56 | |
(17.31 to 18.84) | (6.21 to 6.76) | (8.42 to 9.22) | (17.50 to 24.24) | ||||
2012 | 37.11 | 19.65 | 7.29 | 8.28 | 22.02 | 23.06 | |
(18.90 to 20.39) | (7.01 to 7.57) | (7.98 to 8.57) | (19.29 to 24.76) | ||||
2015 | 39.07 | 20.34 | 7.95 | 8.25 | 23.93 | 23.02 | |
(19.65 to 21.03) | (7.68 to 8.22) | (7.96 to 8.54) | (21.03 to 26.83) | ||||
2017 | 40.28 | 19.89 | 8.01 | 8.04 | 23.49 | 19.42 | |
(19.20 to 20.57) | (7.73 to 8.29) | (7.76 to 8.31) | (20.35 to 26.63) |
AMPS sample sizes vary between 20 377 and 29 458 respondents. NIDS sample sizes vary between 15 556 and 22 493 respondents. Numbers in brackets show 99% CIs. Numbers in italics are authors’ own estimates: we assume that smoking intensity in 2012–2014 remains at the 2011 estimate of 9.1 cigarettes per day and that annual self-reported consumption in 2015–2017 remains at the 2014 level of 26.51 billion cigarettes.
Source: All Media and Products Survey (AMPS, 2002–2014);30 31 National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2017);32–36 United Nations;44 National Treasury;41 and Department of Trade and Industry.42