Model simulations of pass-through effect of different tax regimes
| Variables | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | |||
| 100% | 80% | 100% | 80% | 100% | 80% | |
| Increased average cigarette tax (PKR) | 31.8 | 31.8 | 35.8 | 35.8 | 41 | 41.0 |
| Increased average cigarette pack price (PKR) | 69.9 | 67.7 | 75 | 71.8 | 81.7 | 77.1 |
| Excise tax as % of price* | 39.3 | 47 | 43 | 49.8 | 45 | 53 |
| Change in cigarette consumption (%) | −20.2 | −16.2 | −29.5 | −23.6 | −41.6 | −33.3 |
| Current smokers | ||||||
| Smoking prevalence reduced (million) | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| Smoking prevalence reduced (%) | 10 | 8.0 | 14.7 | 11.8 | 20.7 | 16.6 |
| Premature deaths averted (million) | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Premature deaths averted (%) | 7.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 12.0 |
| Future smokers | ||||||
| Smoking prevalence reduced (million) | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| Premature deaths averted (million) | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Premature deaths averted (%) | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| All smokers (current + future) | ||||||
| Smoking prevalence reduced (million) | 1.6 | 1.25 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Premature deaths averted (million) | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Premature deaths averted (%) | 5.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| Additional excise tax revenue (billion PKR) | 7.8 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 13.6 | 3.5 | 13.5 |
| Change in excise tax revenue (%) | 12.0 | 17.0 | 11.0 | 20.0 | 5.0 | 20.0 |
| Additional total tax revenue (billion PKR) | 6.6 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 13.0 | −1.2 | 11.8 |
| Change in total tax revenue | 7.0 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 14.1 | −1.3 | 12.7 |
| New total revenue (billion PKR) | 99.0 | 104 | 97.3 | 105.4 | 91.2 | 104.2 |
*The share is calculated by first dividing the excise tax in each tier by the corresponding average price in that tier and then these are weighted by the market shares of these tiers.