Proposed tobacco control interventions examined in the simulation analyses
| Intervention | Description | References |
| Antismoking advertising campaigns | Antismoking campaign messages delivered through diverse media channels, including television, print, radio, social media and outdoor advertising (eg, billboards, bus stop advertisements). Campaign activity can be scaled up rapidly, but depends on available funding. | 20–22 |
| Tobacco licensing scheme | Introduction of a licensing scheme requiring wholesalers and retailers to apply for a license prior to supplying tobacco products. Primary functions of the proposed scheme include: (1) supporting monitoring and compliance activities relating to tobacco retail restrictions; (2) providing data on the supply of tobacco products; (3) facilitating direct contact with suppliers regarding legislative requirements; and (4) enabling the suitability of current and prospective suppliers to be assessed. An annual licensing fee charged to offset the cost of administering the scheme would be expected to contribute to a reduction in tobacco retailer density; the cost to retailers of purchasing a license is not specified explicitly; however, the relative impacts of different licensing fees and associated reductions in density can be explored by varying the direct effects of the scheme on initiation, cessation failure and relapse rates (see online supplementary appendix 1, section 2.2). The option of prohibiting alcohol-licensed venues from purchasing a tobacco license, preventing them from legally supplying tobacco products, is also considered. Note that in the analyses presented here, the introduction of a licensing scheme is assumed to increase exposure to antismoking advertising, as data on supply collected as part of the scheme are expected to permit more effective targeting of advertising campaigns (the default increase in advertising exposure is 10%). Simulation analyses assuming no effect of tobacco licensing on antismoking advertising yield qualitatively similar results (see online supplementary appendix 3). There is currently only limited evidence indicating the probable size of the direct effects of tobacco licensing on smoking-related behaviours; the simulations presented here assume modest to moderate effects on initiation, cessation failure and relapse rates, depending on whether alcohol-licensed venues are prohibited from supplying tobacco products (see online supplementary appendix 1, section 2.2). New data collected as part of local trials or the implementation of similar licensing schemes in other jurisdictions could be used to refine these provisional effect estimates in future. | 23 24 |
| Increasing the minimum age of legal supply of tobacco products | Currently, the Tobacco and Other Smoking Products Act 1998 prohibits the supply of tobacco products to persons aged under 18 years. The proposed intervention would involve extending this prohibition on supply to persons aged under 21 years. | 25 |