Table 1

Selected model parameters

Model parameterValueSource
Youth smoking prevalence at baseline, ages 9–17*5.3%2011 YRBS,46 calibrated
Adult smoking prevalence at baseline, ages 18+*17.8%2013 NHIS18
Adult cessation rate without media campaign*7.1%2013 NHIS18
Relative risk of cessation with media campaign1.2McAfee et al 13
Selected annual relapse rates by year since quit after 6 months of continuous cessation†DHHS,19 Wetter et al,20 Herd et al,21 Hughes et al,22 Gilpin et al 23
 1st year18.9%
 2nd year13.3%
 5th year5.6%
 10th year0.4%
Proportion of quitters who use smoking cessation medications*Based on 2010 NHIS data,47 see online supplementary file 1
 Over-the-counter NRT19.2%
 Prescription NRT0.6%
 Bupropion2.1%
 Varenicline7.2%
Average annual insurer expenditure of cessation medications‡ Medicaid All other insurers MarketScan databases, see text
 Over-the-counter NRT$234$199
 Prescription NRT$1347$1170
 Bupropion$118$80
 Varenicline$771$686
Annual per-person medical expenditures of current and former smokers§See online supplementary material 1, table 4 Linked NHIS-MEPS data48
Annual cost of media campaign ($ millions)Xu et al 10
 Creative development$6.9
 Media purchases$118.0
 Evaluation$3.2
 Total$128.1
Discount rate in base case0%
Year of dollar values2015CPI49 and MCPI50
  • *Average shown. Varies by age, sex and race/ethnicity. Adult prevalence and cessation rates also vary by educational status and insurance type. Smoking medication use also varies by insurance type.

  • †Varies as a continuous function of time since quit.

  • ‡Varies by age, sex, insurance type and smoking status.

  • §Varies by age, sex, and smoking status. Also varies by time since quit for former smokers.

  • CPI, Consumer Price Index; DHHS, Department of Health and Human Services; MCPI, Medical Care Price Index; MEPS, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey; NHIS, National Health Interview Survey; NRT, nicotine replacement therapy; YRBS, Youth Risk Behavior Survey.