Estimated smoking prevalence, absolute and relative inequalities—results of selected scenarios*
| Scenario | Smoking prevalence | HEQinter versus HEQhigh | HEQlow versus HEQhigh | ||||
| HEQhigh | HEQinter | HEQlow | Rate difference | Rate ratio | Rate difference | Rate ratio | |
| Baseline | |||||||
| 2013 | 10.4% | 18.9% | 25.1% | 8.5% | 1.82 | 14.7% | 2.41 |
| 2016 | 8.2% | 15.6% | 20.5% | 7.4% | 1.90 | 12.2% | 2.48 |
| Status quo projection | |||||||
| 2030 | 3.8% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 5.3% | 2.40 | 7.9% | 3.06 |
| 2040 | 2.7% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 4.8% | 2.79 | 6.7% | 3.48 |
| 20% reduction in initiation/relapse, and 20% increase in cessation rate | |||||||
| 2030 | 3.0% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 4.5% | 2.53 | 6.6% | 3.23 |
| 2040 | 1.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 3.11 | 5.2% | 3.83 |
| 40% reduction in initiation/relapse, and 40% increase in cessation rate | |||||||
| 2030 | 2.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 2.62 | 5.4% | 3.35 |
| 2040 | 1.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.41 | 3.9% | 4.14 |
| 60% reduction in initiation/relapse, and 60% increase in cessation rate | |||||||
| 2030 | 1.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 2.64 | 4.2% | 3.41 |
| 2040 | 0.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 3.65 | 2.7% | 4.39 |
| TFA target projection | |||||||
| 2030 | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 1.39 | 1.0% | 1.31 |
| 2040 | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.88 | 1.2% | 1.67 |
*Results of all scenarios evaluated are presented in online supplementary appendix 4.
HEQhigh, high educational qualification; HEQinter, intermediate educational qualification; HEQlow, low educational qualification; TFA, tobacco free ambition.