Table 3

Cessation rates required to achieve the tobacco-free ambition (TFA) by 2030 in England, according to different initiation and relapse rates

Scenario	HEQhigh	HEQinter	HEQlow	Total
Cessation rate required to achieve TFA
Status quo projection by 2030	12.0%	6.7%	7.3%	8.0%
Target projection by 2030:
Initiation and relapse rate as in 2016	11.2%	9.2%	18.2%	13.5%
20% reduction in initiation rate	11.2%	9.0%	16.9%	13.0%
20% reduction in relapse rate	10.5%	8.2%	16.4%	12.3%
20% reduction in initiation and relapse rate	10.5%	8.1%	15.1%	11.7%
40% reduction in initiation rate	11.2%	8.9%	15.4%	12.3%
40% reduction in relapse rate	9.8%	7.4%	15.0%	11.3%
40% reduction in initiation and relapse rate	9.8%	7.2%	12.4%	10.2%
60% reduction in initiation rate	11.2%	8.7%	13.9%	11.7%
60% reduction in relapse rate	9.2%	6.8%	14.1%	10.6%
60% reduction in initiation and relapse rate	9.2%	6.4%	10.2%	8.8%
Average no of quitters required each year (x1000)
Baseline in 2016	163	114	291	568
Status quo scenario (during 2012–2016)	108	84	204	397
Target projection (during 2012–2016):
Initiation and relapse rate as in 2016	106	111	314	530
20% reduction in initiation rate	106	110	306	521
20% reduction in relapse rate	99	104	297	499
20% reduction in initiation and relapse rate	99	103	289	490
40% reduction in initiation rate	106	109	297	512
40% reduction in relapse rate	92	97	281	470
40% reduction in initiation and relapse rate	92	96	265	453
60% reduction in initiation rate	105	108	289	503
60% reduction in relapse rate	86	91	266	443
60% reduction in initiation and relapse rate	85	89	243	417

HEQhigh, high educational qualification; HEQinter, intermediate educational qualification; HEQlow, low educational qualification; TFA, tobacco free ambition.