Observed and projected future smoking prevalence (%) in England
| Scenario | HEQhigh | HEQinter | HEQlow | Total |
| Baseline (2012–2016) | ||||
| 2012 | 10.4 | 18.9 | 25.1 | 18.6 |
| 2016 | 8.2 | 15.6 | 20.5 | 15.0 |
| Status quo projection (Monte Carlo simulation)* | ||||
| 2022 | 5.7 (4.5–7.2) | 11.9 (10.0–14.1) | 15.5 (13.1–18.3) | 10.8 (9.1–12.9) |
| 2030 | 3.8 (2.5–6.0) | 9.2 (6.5–12.5) | 11.7 (8.4–16.0) | 7.8 (5.5–11.0) |
| 2040 | 2.7 (1.5–5.1) | 7.6 (4.7–11.3) | 9.4 (5.9–14.5) | 6.0 (3.7–9.6) |
*Results of Monte Carlo simulation—median estimates (95% uncertainty intervals).
HEQhigh, high educational qualification; HEQinter, intermediate educational qualification; HEQlow, low educational qualification.