Table 1

Price-adjusted and desired trends in adult cigarette smoking prevalence over 2022–2030 and current and target average cigarette price and excise tax (in 2021 US$) by state in the USA in 2021 and 2030

StateSmoking prevalence (%), 2021Price-adjusted expected smoking prevalence (%), 2030Desired average annual change (percentage point) in smoking prevalence over 2022–2030 to reach target (βsd)Price-adjusted average annual change (percentage point) (βsep)Difference between desired and price-adjusted average annual reduction (percentage point) in smoking prevalence (βsd − βsep)Average cigarette price ($) per pack, 2021Average cigarette price per pack, 2030 (in 2021 $)State cigarette tax ($) per pack, 2021State cigarette tax ($) per pack, 2030 (in 2021 $)Average annual increase in cigarette tax per pack over 2022–2030 (in 2021 $)
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)
Alabama19.314.3−1.59−0.56−1.035.5915.290.6810.371.08
Alaska16.412.7−1.27−0.41−0.859.5717.622.0010.050.89
Arizona13.96.7−0.99−0.80−0.197.529.312.003.800.20
Arkansas18.812.4−1.53−0.71−0.836.1013.881.158.930.86
California9.25.2−0.47−0.45−0.028.028.192.873.040.02
Colorado11.97.7−0.81−0.47−0.296.599.361.944.720.31
Connecticut10.85.7−0.64−0.56−0.089.9110.664.355.110.08
Delaware14.58.4−1.06−0.68−0.386.8910.482.105.680.40
District of Columbia10.70.5−0.63−1.130.509.924.94
Florida13.89.1−0.97−0.52−0.456.1810.461.345.620.48
Georgia15.19.6−1.13−0.61−0.515.2710.110.375.210.54
Hawaii11.511.5−0.720.00−0.729.5016.323.2010.020.76
Idaho14.611.6−1.07−0.34−0.735.6812.560.577.450.76
Illinois13.19.1−0.91−0.45−0.457.6511.942.987.270.48
Indiana18.011.6−1.44−0.70−0.745.7612.721.007.960.77
Iowa15.511.5−1.17−0.45−0.726.3313.081.368.120.75
Kansas15.09.0−1.11−0.66−0.456.2710.491.295.510.47
Kentucky22.215.4−1.91−0.75−1.165.7216.661.1012.041.22
Louisiana20.916.6−1.77−0.48−1.295.9518.081.0813.211.35
Maine16.511.1−1.28−0.59−0.687.2413.672.008.440.72
Maryland11.34.9−0.70−0.710.016.962.00
Massachusetts10.84.7−0.64−0.670.039.753.51
Michigan17.511.8−1.39−0.63−0.756.8013.912.009.110.79
Minnesota13.49.6−0.93−0.42−0.518.9913.783.618.410.53
Mississippi19.113.2−1.57−0.66−0.915.4013.990.689.270.95
Missouri18.413.0−1.49−0.60−0.894.9913.380.178.560.93
Montana15.515.5−1.170.00−1.176.8317.861.7012.731.23
Nebraska13.47.6−0.93−0.64−0.295.598.330.643.380.30
Nevada14.47.3−1.04−0.79−0.256.859.221.804.170.26
New Hampshire15.311.8−1.14−0.39−0.756.7313.801.788.860.79
New Jersey12.06.7−0.78−0.59−0.197.799.572.704.470.20
New Mexico14.77.3−1.07−0.82−0.256.789.142.004.360.26
New York11.57.2−0.72−0.47−0.2510.5112.864.356.700.26
North Carolina17.512.8−1.38−0.52−0.865.2113.360.458.600.91
North Dakota15.910.1−1.22−0.65−0.575.2710.650.445.810.60
Ohio19.813.9−1.65−0.66−0.996.4715.791.6010.921.04
Oklahoma17.38.4−1.37−0.99−0.387.1910.772.035.610.40
Oregon12.58.1−0.94−0.49−0.347.5310.743.336.540.36
Pennsylvania16.09.6−1.22−0.70−0.528.2713.132.607.460.54
Rhode Island11.94.4−0.77−0.830.079.754.25
South Carolina16.29.4−1.24−0.75−0.495.369.970.575.180.51
South Dakota17.311.2−1.37−0.68−0.696.5813.121.538.070.73
Tennessee−0.60−1.5413.518.9−0.94%5.3214.170.629.470.98
Texas13.78.7−0.97−0.56−0.416.3610.201.415.240.43
Utah7.13.3−0.23−0.430.196.921.70
Vermont14.310.3−1.03−0.44−0.598.7314.273.088.620.62
Virginia12.35.5−0.82−0.76−0.055.646.130.601.090.05
Washington11.32.5−0.70−0.980.278.483.03
West Virginia22.716.8−1.97−0.66−1.316.0818.431.2013.551.37
Wisconsin14.16.8−1.01−0.81−0.207.709.582.524.400.21
Wyoming17.310.7−1.37−0.73−0.645.5811.580.606.600.67