Table 4

Projected change due to elimination of trade in illicit cigarettes

CountryAll cigarettes
(% change)
Total smokers (% change)Tax revenue (% change)Tax revenue (US$ Mn)*
Latvia−7.0−3.750.0135
Brazil−10.3−5.534.11326
South Africa−5.3−2.843.7668
USA−3.1−1.622.38084
Sweden−1.9−1.020.4246
Canada−2.7−1.418.41337
Bulgaria−2.4−1.318.6324
Malaysia−4.1−2.213.0116
Chile−2.4−1.316.0334
Poland−2.3−1.214.6992
Vietnam−1.7−0.913.5195
Turkey−3.2−1.76.6697
Uruguay−3.4−1.89.429
Iran−1.4−0.710.857
Ireland−1.7−0.910.3165
UK−1.2−0.610.61412
Romania−1.6−0.910.0362
Czechia−1.0−0.510.3335
Gambia−1.1−0.68.11
Mexico−1.4−0.86.5327
Indonesia−1.4−0.75.6908
Croatia−0.8−0.47.377
Colombia−1.1−0.65.535
Mongolia−1.1−0.65.32
India−1.0−0.64.8320
Australia−0.8−0.45.0432
Hungary−0.5−0.34.644
Albania−0.6−0.34.09
Spain−0.4−0.23.3353
New Zealand−0.4−0.22.526
France−0.6−0.32.0341
Finland−0.5−0.31.829
Georgia−0.3−0.11.04
Italy−0.1−0.10.7123
Austria−0.1−0.00.721
Greece−0.2−0.10.516
Group A −4.1 −2.2 25.1 13 563
−2.9 to −5.1−1.5 to −2.723.9 to 26.812 882 to 14 509
Group B −1.7 −0.9 9.1 4564
−0.9 to −2.2−0.5 to −1.28.5 to 9.94263 to 4986
Group C −0.6 −0.3 3.0 1757
−0.3 to −0.7−0.2 to −0.42.8 to 3.21666 to 1885
Average −1.9 1.0 11.2 19 884
−1.2 to −2.4−0.7 to −1.310.5 to 12.018 810 to 21 380
  • *Totals with respect to tax revenues in final column.