Scenarios | Cumulative excess smoking initiators | Cumulative excess deaths | Cumulative excess life years lost |
1 Baseline values | 10 137 808 (100%) | 377 528 (100%) | 2 951 533 (100%) |
2 Low yield from experimenter to smoker (1.02) | 336 487 (3%) | 218 674 (58%) | 1 943 341 (66%) |
3 High yield from experimenter to smoker (3.16) | 19 251 975 (190%) | 529 035 (140%) | 3 913 101 (133%) |
4 Low menthol cessation (0.63) | 10 137 808 (100%) | 512 545 (136%) | 4 156 195 (141%) |
5 High menthol cessation (0.91) | 10 137 808 (100%) | 240 936 (64%) | 1 723 153 (58%) |
6 Low menthol mortality risk (0.8) | 10 137 808 (100%) | −237 899 (−63%) | −7 818 738 (−265%) |
7 High menthol mortality risk (1.2) | 10 137 808 (100%) | 902 765 (239%) | 12 265 394 (416%) |
8 Low switch rate menthol to non-menthol (1.35%) | 10 137 808 (100%) | 386 884 (102%) | 3 018 626 (102%) |
9 High switch rate menthol to non-menthol (2.25%) | 10 137 808 (100%) | 368 786 (98%) | 2 888 179 (98%) |
10 Low switch rate non-menthol to menthol (0.6%) | 10 137 808 (100%) | 368 726 (98%) | 2 885 345 (98%) |
11 High switch rate non-menthol to menthol (1%) | 10 137 808 (100%) | 386 100 (102%) | 3 016 384 (102%) |
12 Cessation impact. Identical initiation rates (yield from experimenter to smoker=1) | 0 (0%) | 213 299 (56%) | 1 909 239 (65%) |
13 Initiation Impact. Identical cessation rates (menthol cessation multiplier=1) | 10 137 808 (100%) | 167 113 (44%) | 1 055 222 (36%) |