Table 2

Estimates of cumulative excess smoking initiation, smoking-related deaths and life years lost due to menthol cigarettes over the period 1980–2018

ScenariosCumulative excess smoking initiatorsCumulative excess deathsCumulative excess life years lost
1 Baseline values10 137 808
(100%)
377 528
(100%)
2 951 533
(100%)
2 Low yield from experimenter to smoker (1.02)336 487
(3%)
218 674
(58%)
1 943 341
(66%)
3 High yield from experimenter to smoker (3.16)19 251 975
(190%)
529 035
(140%)
3 913 101
(133%)
4 Low menthol cessation (0.63)10 137 808
(100%)
512 545
(136%)
4 156 195
(141%)
5 High menthol cessation (0.91)10 137 808
(100%)
240 936
(64%)
1 723 153
(58%)
6 Low menthol mortality risk (0.8)10 137 808
(100%)
−237 899
(−63%)
−7 818 738
(−265%)
7 High menthol mortality risk (1.2)10 137 808
(100%)
902 765
(239%)
12 265 394
(416%)
8 Low switch rate menthol to non-menthol (1.35%)10 137 808
(100%)
386 884
(102%)
3 018 626
(102%)
9 High switch rate menthol to non-menthol (2.25%)10 137 808
(100%)
368 786
(98%)
2 888 179
(98%)
10 Low switch rate non-menthol to menthol (0.6%)10 137 808
(100%)
368 726
(98%)
2 885 345
(98%)
11 High switch rate non-menthol to menthol (1%)10 137 808
(100%)
386 100
(102%)
3 016 384
(102%)
12 Cessation impact. Identical initiation rates (yield from experimenter to smoker=1)0
(0%)
213 299
(56%)
1 909 239
(65%)
13 Initiation Impact. Identical cessation rates (menthol cessation multiplier=1)10 137 808
(100%)
167 113
(44%)
1 055 222
(36%)