Differences in monthly per cent change in advertised pack price by tobacco type across 2017–2019, regression coefficients and adjusted marginal means
| Factory-made cigarettes (n=641) | Roll-your-own tobacco (n=596) | |||||
| Coefficient | 95% CI | P value | Coefficient | 95% CI | P value | |
| Year | 0.26 | (−0.11 to 0.64) | 0.164 | 0.29 | (−0.03 to 0.62) | 0.077 |
| Month | F(11 625)=13.55, p<0.001 | F(11 580)=51.75, p<0.001 | ||||
| January | −0.55 | (−2.04 to 0.94) | 0.467 | −0.27 | (−1.54 to 1.00) | 0.672 |
| February | 0.53 | (−0.95 to 2.02) | 0.480 | −0.17 | (−1.45 to 1.10) | 0.788 |
| March* | 0.94 | (−0.54 to 2.42) | 0.214 | 0.41 | (−0.86 to 1.68) | 0.530 |
| April | 0.98 | (−0.51 to 2.47) | 0.196 | 0.73 | (−0.54 to 2.00) | 0.259 |
| May | 1.09 | (−0.40 to 2.58) | 0.152 | −0.58 | (−1.85 to 0.69) | 0.372 |
| June | −0.70 | (−2.18 to 0.78) | 0.354 | −1.19 | (−2.47 to 0.10) | 0.070 |
| July | 0.21 | (−1.27 to 1.69) | 0.781 | −0.54 | (-1.81 to 0.73) | 0.400 |
| August (ref) | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
| September* | 6.50 | (5.01 to 7.99) | 0.000 | 11.10 | (9.83 to 12.36) | 0.000 |
| October | 2.99 | (1.50 to 4.48) | 0.000 | 1.56 | (0.29 to 2.83) | 0.016 |
| November | 0.34 | (−1.15 to 1.83) | 0.653 | 0.08 | (−1.20 to 1.35) | 0.907 |
| December | −0.18 | (−1.67 to 1.31) | 0.811 | −0.58 | (−1.87 to 0.72) | 0.382 |
| Company | F(2625)=0.03, p=0.966 | F(2580)=0.37, p=0.690 | ||||
| BATA (ref) | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
| IT | 0.07 | (−0.67 to 0.82) | 0.846 | 0.15 | (−0.49 to 0.79) | 0.655 |
| PM | −0.02 | (−0.77 to 0.72) | 0.954 | 0.29 | (−0.37 to 0.95) | 0.389 |
| Supermarket | 0.13 | (−0.48 to 0.74) | 0.667 | −0.17 | (−0.07 to 0.35) | 0.519 |
| Adjusted marginal means | ||||||
| Per cent | 95% CI | P value | Per cent | 95% CI | P value | |
| January | −0.54 | (−1.60 to 0.52) | 0.315 | 0.08 | (−0.82 to 0.99) | 0.857 |
| February | 0.54 | (−0.50 to 1.59) | 0.308 | 0.18 | (−0.73 to 1.10) | 0.695 |
| March | 0.95 | (−0.10 to 2.00) | 0.075 | 0.76 | (−0.14 to 1.67) | 0.098 |
| April | 0.99 | (−0.07 to 2.05) | 0.066 | 1.09 | (0.18 to 1.99) | 0.019 |
| May | 1.10 | (0.04 to 2.16) | 0.042 | −0.22 | (−1.13 to 0.69) | 0.634 |
| June | −0.69 | (−1.74 to 0.36) | 0.197 | −0.83 | (−1.75 to 0.10) | 0.079 |
| July | 0.22 | (−0.83 to 1.27) | 0.679 | −0.19 | (−1.09 to 0.72) | 0.685 |
| August | 0.01 | (−1.04 to 1.06) | 0.983 | 0.36 | (−0.53 to 1.25) | 0.430 |
| September | 6.51 | (5.45 to 7.57) | 0.000 | 11.45 | (10.56 to 12.35) | 0.000 |
| October | 3.01 | (1.95 to 4.06) | 0.000 | 1.91 | (1.01 to 2.82) | 0.000 |
| November | 0.35 | (−0.71 to 1.41) | 0.513 | 0.43 | (−0.48 to 1.35) | 0.353 |
| December | −0.17 | (−1.23 to 0.89) | 0.752 | −0.22 | (−1.15 to 0.72) | 0.647 |
*Scheduled indexation increases occur on 1 March and 1 September of each year; additional 12.5% excise increases occurred on 1 September of each year.
BATA, British American Tobacco Australia; IT, Imperial Tobacco; PM, Philip Morris.