Projected impact of 25% specific excise tax increase on consumption and government revenue by income group
| Income group | Share in consumption (2015) (%) | Consumption (packs) | Revenues | ||||
| Baseline (2018) | 25% increase | % change | Baseline (2018) | 25% increase | % change | ||
| Low | 26 | 57 899 688 | 45 250 677 | −21.8 | €127 195 286 | €119 361 929 | −6.2 |
| Middle | 34 | 76 564 719 | 65 019 415 | −15.1 | €168 199 029 | €171 507 772 | 2.0 |
| High | 40 | 89 605 593 | 80 547 2019 | −10.1 | €196 847 503 | €212 466 861 | 7.9 |
| Total | 100 | 224 070 000 | 190 817 294 | −14.8 | €492 241 817 | €503 336 562 | 2.3 |
The simulation is made under assumption that supply of cigarettes is perfectly elastic, so the whole additional tax burden will be paid by consumers.