Table 6

Percentage change scenario for a 10% increase on cigarettes price by age cohort

Panel A: change in cigarette expenditures
Price elasticity	15–29	30–39	40–49	50–59	60+
Lower bound	0.27	0.25	0.32	0.26	0.15
Estimated	0.50	0.45	0.55	0.45	0.45
Upper bound	0.78	0.70	0.82	0.69	0.82
Complete pass-through	1.00	0.90	1.00	0.80	0.80
Panel B: change in medical costs
Price elasticity	15–29	30–39	40–49	50–59	60+
Lower bound	−1.31	−0.86	−0.75	−0.65	−0.87
Estimated	−0.90	−0.59	−0.49	−0.41	−0.46
Upper bound	−0.39	−0.26	−0.19	−0.13	0.03
Panel C: change in income (years of life lost cost)
Price elasticity	15–29	30–39	40–49	50–59	60+
Lower bound	−2.50	−1.51	−2.17	−3.02	−1.71
Estimated	−1.71	−1.03	−1.43	−1.92	−0.91
Upper bound	−0.75	−0.45	−0.56	−0.60	0.05
Panel D: net income effect
Price elasticity	15–29	30–39	40–49	50–59	60+
Lower bound	3.53	2.12	2.59	3.41	2.43
Estimated	2.11	1.17	1.37	1.88	0.92
Upper bound	0.37	0.01	−0.07	0.03	−0.90

Panel A shows the results from equation (5). Panel B shows the results from equation (6). Panel C shows the results from equation (7). Complete pass-through refers to elasticity equal to zero. All calculations use values from tables 2–4. Panel D is the negative of the sum of panels A–C.