Table 5

Simulated impacts based on the calibrated random parameter logit model

Price segment	1000 Vietnamese dong specific tax		2000 Vietnamese dong specific tax		5000 Vietnamese dong specific tax
Price segment	Mean	95% CI	Mean	95% CI	Mean	95% CI
Scenario 1
Low	−3.31	−3.67 to −2.95	−6.11	−6.76 to −5.45	−11.90	−13.06 to −10.75
High	−0.70	−0.78 to −0.61	−1.36	−1.53 to −1.18	−3.04	−3.43 to −2.65
Illicit SE555	0.12	0.10 to 0.13	0.25	0.21 to 0.28	0.72	0.62 to 0.83
Jet and Hero	4.19	3.72 to 4.65	7.90	7.01 to 8.80	14.63	13.06 to 16.19
Opt-out	2.06	1.77 to 2.35	3.77	3.26 to 4.28	7.83	6.87 to 8.79
Scenario 2
Low	−2.75	−3.06 to −2.43	−5.14	−5.71 to −4.57	−10.80	−11.90 to −9.70
High	−0.40	−0.45 to −0.36	−0.80	−0.90 to −0.71	−2.00	−2.25 to −1.74
Illicit SE555	0.06	0.05 to 0.07	0.13	0.11 to 0.15	0.34	0.30 to 0.39
Jet and Hero	2.11	1.87 to 2.36	3.97	3.49 to 4.45	7.60	6.61 to 8.60
Opt-out	2.16	1.86 to 2.47	4.08	3.53 to 4.63	9.13	8.04 to 10.23
Scenario 3
Low	−2.49	−2.78 to −2.19	−4.68	−5.24 to −4.13	−9.50	−10.56 to −8.45
High	−0.89	−0.98 to −0.81	−1.72	−1.90 to −1.55	−3.80	−4.19 to −3.41
Illicit SE555	0.11	0.09 to 0.12	0.22	0.19 to 0.26	0.64	0.55 to 0.74
Jet and Hero	3.63	3.25 to 4.02	6.97	6.21 to 7.72	13.76	12.29 to 15.24
Opt-out	1.69	1.45 to 1.92	3.14	2.71 to 3.57	6.65	5.81 to 7.48
Scenario 4
Low	−2.11	−2.36 to −1.86	−4.01	−4.47 to −3.55	−8.77	−9.71 to −7.83
High	−0.26	−0.29 to −0.23	−0.53	−0.59 to −0.47	−1.34	−1.50 to −1.18
Illicit SE555	0.04	0.03 to 0.04	0.08	0.07 to 0.09	0.21	0.18 to 0.24
Jet and Hero	1.29	1.14 to 1.45	2.46	2.15 to 2.76	5.01	4.31 to 5.71
Opt-out	1.77	1.52 to 2.02	3.38	2.92 to 3.85	7.72	6.76 to 8.68

Jet and Hero are exclusively concentrated in the South. Each number indicates a change (in percentage points) in market share in the country. One percentage point represents 1% of the total number of current smokers.
According to the World Bank, the average official exchange rate in 2019 was 1.00 Vietnamese dong=US$4.34×10⁻⁵ or US$1.00=23 050.24 Vietnamese dong.