Reform scenario
| Minimum excise tax FM cigarettes | Minimum excise tax RYO tobacco | WAP FM cigarettes | 95% CI | WAP RYO tobacco | 95% CI | Price gap | 95% CI | Change WAP FM cigarettes | 95% CI | Change WAP RYO tobacco | 95% CI | Change in price gap | 95% CI | |
| AT | 160.4 | 229.1 | 5.15 | 5.04 to 5.25 | 4.06 | 3.21 to 4.91 | 1.09 | 0.761 to 1.41 | 0.18 | 0.156 to 0.198 | 1.32 | 1.14 to 1.49 | −1.14 | −1.3 to −0.96 |
| BE | 191.7 | 273.8 | 6.28 | 6.17 to 6.37 | 4.05 | 2.83 to 5.26 | 2.22 | 1.82 to 2.61 | 2.04 | 1.77 to 2.31 | −2.04 | −2.3 to −1.7 | ||
| BG | 160.4 | 229.1 | 4.10 | 3.82 to 4.37 | 3.47 | 2.63 to 4.30 | 0.63 | 0.234 to 1.03 | 1.45 | 1.27 to 1.62 | 1.83 | 1.58 to 2.07 | −0.37 | −0.61 to −0.11 |
| CZ | 160.4 | 229.1 | 4.52 | 4.28 to 4.76 | 3.64 | 2.75 to 4.52 | 0.88 | 0.566 to 1.24 | 0.99 | 0.870 to 1.10 | 1.61 | 1.39 to 1.82 | −0.62 | −0.82 to −0.40 |
| DE | 163.6 | 233.7 | 5.89 | 5.82 to 5.96 | 3.97 | 2.99 to 4.93 | 1.93 | 1.60 to 2.24 | 1.96 | 1.70 to 2.22 | −1.96 | (−2.2 to −1.7 | ||
| DK | 235.1 | 335.9 | 7.10 | 6.79 to 7.41 | 5.50 | 4.17 to 6.82 | 1.60 | 1.15 to 2.02 | 1.87 | 1.62 to 2.11 | −1.87 | −2.1 to −1.6 | ||
| EE | 160.4 | 229.1 | 4.52 | 4.28 to 4.75 | 2.59 | 1.67 to 3.50 | 1.93 | 1.59 to 2.27 | 0.45 | 0.396 to 0.504 | 1.68 | 1.46 to 1.90 | −1.23 | −1.4 to −0.99 |
| EL | 160.4 | 229.1 | 4.68 | 4.48 to 4.88 | 4.25 | 3.78 to 4.70 | 0.44 | 0.194 to 0.702 | 0.89 | 0.782 to 0.996 | 0.71 | 0.619 to 0.808 | 0.18 | 0.061 to 0.295 |
| ES | 160.4 | 229.1 | 5.06 | 4.93 to 5.18 | 3.94 | 3.16 to 4.71 | 1.12 | 0.855 to 1.39 | 0.60 | 0.526 to 0.670 | 1.57 | 1.36 to 1.78 | −0.97 | −1.1 to −0.75 |
| FI | 292.3 | 417.5 | 7.88 | 7.47 to 8.28 | 5.89 | 4.13 to 7.64 | 1.99 | 1.45 to 2.55 | 2.86 | 2.48 to 3.24 | −2.86 | −3.2 to −2.4 | ||
| FR | 314.0 | 448.6 | 9.08 | 8.69 to 9.45 | 7.43 | 5.70 to 9.15 | 1.65 | 1.13 to 2.14 | 2.02 | 1.75 to 2.29 | −2.02 | −2.2 to −1.7 | ||
| HR | 160.4 | 229.1 | 4.64 | 4.38 to 4.90 | 3.72 | 2.86 to 4.57 | 0.92 | 0.531 to 1.32 | 1.02 | 0.897 to 1.14 | 1.46 | 1.26 to 1.65 | −0.44 | −0.63 to −0.24 |
| HU | 160.4 | 229.1 | 4.88 | 4.61 to 5.14 | 3.45 | 2.43 to 4.47 | 1.43 | 1.07 to 1.79 | 1.19 | 1.04 to 1.33 | 2.02 | 1.75 to 2.28 | −0.83 | −1.0 to −0.55 |
| IE | 395.1 | 564.4 | 11.88 | 11.4 to 12.2 | 10.26 | 8.60 to 11.9 | 1.62 | 1.08 to 2.10 | 2.23 | 1.93 to 2.52 | −2.23 | −2.5 to −1.9 | ||
| IT | 160.4 | 229.1 | 5.21 | 5.12 to 5.29 | 3.80 | 3.13 to 4.46 | 1.41 | 1.15 to 1.68 | 0.40 | 0.347 to 0.442 | 1.20 | 1.03 to 1.35 | −0.80 | −0.94 to −0.63 |
| LT | 160.4 | 229.1 | 4.49 | 4.18 to 4.80 | 3.43 | 2.43 to 4.42 | 1.06 | 0.670 to 1.39 | 1.08 | 0.946 to 1.20 | 1.82 | 1.57 to 2.06 | −0.74 | −0.97 to −0.49 |
| LV | 160.4 | 229.1 | 4.53 | 4.26 to 4.79 | 4.18 | 3.20 to 5.14 | 0.35 | 0.021 to .711 | 0.95 | 0.833 to 1.06 | 1.86 | 1.61 to 2.10 | −0.91 | −1.1 to −0.66 |
| NL | 238.3 | 340.4 | 7.12 | 6.90 to 7.32 | 5.62 | 4.19 to 7.05 | 1.49 | 1.03 to 1.97 | 2.23 | 1.93 to 2.52 | −2.23 | −2.5 to −1.9 | ||
| PL | 160.4 | 229.1 | 4.42 | 4.15 to 4.68 | 3.61 | 2.57 to 4.64 | 0.81 | 0.460 to 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.03 to 1.31 | 2.17 | 1.88 to 2.46 | −1.00 | −1.2 to −0.70 |
| PT | 160.4 | 229.1 | 4.92 | 4.82 to 5.01 | 4.33 | 3.71 to 4.95 | 0.58 | (0.332 to 0.838) | 0.49 | 0.431 to 0.548 | 0.65 | 0.566 to 0.740 | −0.16 | −0.24 to −0.07 |
| RO | 160.4 | 229.1 | 4.80 | 4.57 to 5.02 | 4.73 | 3.96 to 5.49 | 0.07 | −0.32 to 0.484 | 1.07 | 0.937 to 1.19 | 1.58 | 1.37 to 1.79 | −0.51 | −0.72 to −0.29 |
| SE | 160.4 | 229.1 | 5.81 | 5.77 to 5.84 | 5.41 | 5.28 to 5.53 | 0.41 | 0.198 to 0.612 | 0.22 | 0.197 to 0.251 | 0.58 | 0.502 to 0.656 | −0.35 | −0.42 to −0.27 |
| SI | 160.4 | 229.1 | 4.63 | 4.40 to 4.86 | 4.09 | 3.19 to 4.98 | 0.55 | 0.216 to 0.883 | 0.97 | 0.846 to 1.07 | 1.63 | 1.41 to 1.84 | −0.67 | −0.87 to −0.44 |
| SK | 160.4 | 229.1 | 4.50 | 4.25 to 4.74 | 4.38 | 3.50 to 5.24 | 0.12 | −0.19 to 0.476 | 1.25 | 1.10 to 1.40 | 1.84 | 1.59 to 2.08 | −0.59 | −0.83 to −0.33 |
| UK | 330.4 | 472.1 | 10.19 | 10.0 to 10.3 | 9.16 | 7.77 to 10.5 | 1.03 | 0.598 to 1.45 | 2.70 | 2.34 to 3.05 | −2.70 | −3.0 to −2.3 | ||
| Mean | 195.5 | 279.2 | 5.85 | 5.68 to 5.99 | 4.76 | 4.47 to 5.06 | 1.09 | 0.78 to 1.41 | 0.58 | 0.50 to 0.64 | 1.74 | 1.50 to 1.99 | −1.16 | −1.4 to −0.92 |
| SD | 71.1 | 101.6 | 2.00 | 1.95 to 2.05 | 1.80 | 1.72 to 1.88 | 0.61 | 0.55 to 0.71 | 0.51 | 0.44 to 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.48 to 0.63 | 0.83 | 0.74 to 0.92 |
| CV | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.34 | 0.33 to 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.36 to 0.39 | 0.56 | 0.48 to 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.88 to 0.88 | 0.32 | 0.31 to 0.31 | −0.72 | −0.8 to 0.61 |
| Median | 160.4 | 229.1 | 4.92 | 4.80 to 5.13 | 4.09 | 3.83 to 4.40 | 1.06 | 0.72 to 1.37 | 0.49 | 0.42 to 0.54 | 1.83 | 1.58 to 2.09 | −0.91 | −1.16 to 0.64 |
| IQR | 1.75 | 1.45 to 1.95 | 1.68 | 1.36 to 1.84 | 1.01 | 0.70 to 1.27 | 1.02 | 0.89 to 1.14 | 0.45 | 0.38 to 0.51 | 1.38 | 1.21 to 1.5 | ||
| IQR to median | 0.35 | 0.29 to 0.39 | 0.41 | 0.31 to 0.46 | 0.95 | 0.74 to 1.19 | 2.08 | 2.08 to 2.08 | 0.25 | 0.24 to 0.24 | −1.52 | −2.24 to 1.1 | ||
Minimum excise tax FM cigarettes is expressed in € per 1000 FM cigarettes.
Minimum excise tax RYO tobacco is expressed in € per 1000 g of fine cut tobacco.
WAP FM cigarettes is expressed in € per 20 FM cigarettes.
WAP RYO tobacco is expressed in € per 20 sticks equivalent of fine cut tobacco (ie, 14 g).
AT (Austria), BE (Belgium), BG (Bulgaria), CZ (Czeck Republic), DE (Germany), DK (Denmark), EE (Estonia), EL (Greece), ES (Spain), FI (Finland), FR (France), HR (Croatia), HU (Hungary), IE (Ireland), IT (Italy), LT (Lithuania), LV (Latvia), NL (Netherlands), PL (Poland), PT (Portugal), RO (Romania), SE (Sweden), SI (Slovenia), SK (Slovakia), UK (United Kingdom)
CV, coefficient of variation; FM, factory-made; RYO, roll-your-own tobacco; WAP, weighted average price.