Table 3

Simulation results—reduction in cigarette consumption, 2014–2020

A. Reduction in cigarette consumption attributable to score increases from 2014 to 2020
ScenarioActual scores in 2014Actual scores in 2020% reduction
Cigarette consumption in 2020 (in thousand sticks)—whole sample0.890.86−3.27
B. Reduction in cigarette consumption if all countries had increased their scores to 5 by 2020
ScenarioActual scores in 2014All 5 in 2020% reduction
Cigarette consumption in 2020 (in thousand sticks)—whole sample0.890.70−20.74
Cigarette consumption in 2020 (in thousand sticks)—HICs0.990.88−11.11
Cigarette consumption in 2020 (in thousand sticks)—LMICs0.820.59−28.05
  • Countries’ average actual overall score in 2014 is 2.23, while countries’ average actual overall score in 2020 is 2.53. The average actual overall scores in 2014 are 2.98 for HICs and 1.68 for LMICs. The average actual overall scores in 2020 are 3.21 for HICs and 2.10 for LMICs. The percent reduction is calculated as the ratio of the difference in cigarette consumption between 2020 and 2014 to cigarette consumption in 2014.

  • HICs, high-income countries; LMICs, low and middle-income countries.