Table 4

Health gain (in HALYs gained) for people alive in 2020 (base year, N=5 086 322) in Aotearoa New Zealand by the modelled policies, by timeline into the future (3% discount rate)

PopulationYearDenicotinisationDenicotinisation+mediaRetail reductionSmoke-free generationCombined interventions
Estimate95% UIEstimate95% UIEstimate95% UIEstimate95% UIEstimate95% UI
Female Māori2020–2030955679 to 1260971699 to 1260335221 to 4752316 to 311130884 to 1380
2031–204010 6007990 to 13 10010 7008160 to 13 10028001830 to 3990325242 to 40611 5009370 to 13 700
2041–2131151 000111 000 to 188 000151 000112 000 to 189 00024 80015 900 to 36 70029 90019 400 to 40 600157 000116 000 to 195 000
All162 000120 000 to 202 000163 000121 000 to 203 00027 90018 000 to 41 10030 30019 700 to 41 000170 000127 000 to 210 000
Female non-Māori2020–203014501030 to 194014701050 to 1950525346 to 7452316 to 3217101330 to 2130
2031–204014 70011 000 to 18 30014 80011 200 to 18 40039902610 to 5770334239 to 44316 00012 800 to 19 200
2041–2131142 000104 000 to 182 000143 000105 000 to 182 00028 20017 800 to 42 80015 3009950 to 22 400149 000109 000 to 189 000
All159 000116 000 to 201 000160 000117 000 to 202 00032 70020 800 to 49 20015 60010 300 to 22 900166 000124 000 to 209 000
Male Māori2020–2030596423 to 786606436 to 792214141 to 3031712 to 22707554 to 871
2031–204060804570 to 752061404670 to 756016401070 to 2350230171 to 29166505360 to 7940
2041–213170 10049 400 to 90 60070 50049 600 to 91 00012 4007990 to 18 80012 8008220 to 18 10073 60052 100 to 94 200
All76 70054 800 to 98 30077 20055 300 to 98 80014 3009240 to 21 40013 0008450 to 18 30080 80058 200 to 103 000
Male non-Māori2020–203016201140 to 215016401170 to 2160585384 to 8302416 to 3319101500 to 2360
2031–204015 90012 000 to 19 70016 00012 200 to 19 80043002810 to 6180345249 to 45517 30014 000 to 20 800
2041–2131151 000112 000 to 193 000152 000112 000 to 193 00029 50018 900 to 44 40016 30010 800 to 23 800158 000119 000 to 199 000
All168 000126 000 to 214 000169 000127 000 to 214 00034 40022 100 to 51 40016 70011 100 to 24 300177 000134 000 to 221 000
All population2020–203046303260 to 614046903360 to 617016601090 to 23608860 to 11854604280 to 6740
2031–204047 40035 700 to 58 50047 80036 400 to 58 70012 7008300 to 18 3001230909 to 159051 50041 500 to 61 600
2041–2131514 000378 000 to 650 000517 000380 000 to 653 00094 80060 900 to 143 00074 20049 000 to 104 000537 000396 000 to 673 000
All566 000421 000 to 711 000569 000424 000 to 714 000109 00070 200 to 163 00075 50050 200 to 105 000594 000443 000 to 738 000
  • HALYs, health-adjusted life years; UI, uncertainty interval.