Table 3

Deaths averted* during 2020–2030 and 2031–2040, in Aotearoa New Zealand by strategy

PopulationYearDenicotinisationDenicotinisation+mediaRetail reductionSmoke-free generationCombined interventions
Est95% UIEst95% UIEst95% UIEst95% UIEst95% UI
Female Māori
(n=428 948 in 2020)		2020–2030261183 to 339265188 to 3418758 to 12310.39 to 0.77300233 to 368
2031–204017801360 to 221018001380 to 2220441285 to 6431410 to 1718901500 to 2300
2020–204020401540 to 255020601570 to 2560528344 to 7641410 to 1822001740 to 2650
Female non-Māori
(n=2 132 141 in 2020)		2020–2030281196 to 367285201 to 3709764 to 13800.31 to 0.62324252 to 401
2031–204019401450 to 243019601480 to 2440496321 to 72996.1 to 1220701620 to 2530
2020–204022201650 to 280022401680 to 2810594384 to 86796.4 to 1223901870 to 2920
Male Māori
(n=425 740 in 2020)		2020–203014097 to 183142101 to 1844932 to 6900 to 0.01163127 to 200
2031–2040864651 to 1070873661 to 1080221145 to 32142.6 to 4.8921726 to 1120
2020–20401000747 to 12601010765 to 1260270176 to 38942.6 to 4.81080851 to 1310
Male non-Māori
(n=2 099 493 in 2020)		2020–2030329229 to 431333236 to 43311375 to 16000.12 to 0.28380298 to 468
2031–204019701500 to 244019901520 to 2450504330 to 73442.6 to 521101670 to 2540
2020–204023001730 to 286023201760 to 2870617405 to 89242.7 to 5.324901980 to 3000
All
(n=5 086 322 in 2020)		2020–20301010707 to 13201020728 to 1320346230 to 49110.84 to 1.61170911 to 1430
2031–204065604990 to 816066205060 to 819016601080 to 24203022 to 3769905520 to 8470
2020–204075705680 to 944076405780 to 949020101310 to 29003123 to 3981506450 to 9890

  • *Deaths averted over the period, that is, total deaths over each 10-year period in BAU minus intervention.

  • BAU, business as usual; UI, uncertainty interval.