Table 2

Sensitivity analysis of averted smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost to NVP relative risks and individual transition parameters, both genders combined, all ages, 2021–2060

Case	Description	Smoking and vaping-attributable deaths averted	% change*	Smoking and vaping-attributable life-years lost averted	% change*
1	Base case with NVP at 15% of cigarette excess mortality risk	654 221	–	11 311 077	–
2	NVP risk at 5% of cigarette-attributable excess mortality risk	687 209	5.0	11 924 114	5.4
3	NVP risk at 25% of cigarette-attributable excess mortality risk	622 425	−4.9	10 707 764	−5.3
4	Reduce overall smoking initiation rates by 10%	647 128	−1.1	11 083 049	−2.0
5	Increase overall smoking initiation rates by 10%	661 201	1.1	11 535 131	2.0
6	Reduce overall smoking cessation rates by 10%	702 353	7.4	11 979 548	5.9
7	Increase overall smoking cessation rates by 10%	609 459	−6.8	10 679 917	−5.6
8	Menthol cessation rate the same as non-menthol rate	461 006	−29.5	8 577 213	−24.2
9	Reduce overall switching rate by 10%	670 082	2.4	11 612 042	2.7
10	Increase overall switching rate by 10%	638 805	−2.4	11 019 404	−2.6
11	Menthol cessation rate the same as non-menthol rate	461 006	−29.5	8 577 213	−24.2
12	Reduce the annual decline in switching rate from 10% to 0%	520 179	−20.5	8 830 696	−21.9
13	Reduce NVP initiation rates by 10%	654 443	0.03	11 318 431	0.1
14	Increase NVP initiation rates by 10%	654 001	−0.03	11 303 795	−0.1
15	Reduce NVP cessation rates by 10%	650 266	−0.6	11 253 710	−0.5
16	Increase NVP cessation rates by 10%	657 768	0.5	11 363 818	0.5

*% change is in terms of the relative difference from the base case (eg, (687 209–654 221)/654 221 for case 2 relative to case 1).
NVP, nicotine vaping product.