Case | Description | Smoking and vaping-attributable deaths averted | % change* | Smoking and vaping-attributable life-years lost averted | % change* |
1 | Base case with NVP at 15% of cigarette excess mortality risk | 654 221 | – | 11 311 077 | – |
2 | NVP risk at 5% of cigarette-attributable excess mortality risk | 687 209 | 5.0 | 11 924 114 | 5.4 |
3 | NVP risk at 25% of cigarette-attributable excess mortality risk | 622 425 | −4.9 | 10 707 764 | −5.3 |
4 | Reduce overall smoking initiation rates by 10% | 647 128 | −1.1 | 11 083 049 | −2.0 |
5 | Increase overall smoking initiation rates by 10% | 661 201 | 1.1 | 11 535 131 | 2.0 |
6 | Reduce overall smoking cessation rates by 10% | 702 353 | 7.4 | 11 979 548 | 5.9 |
7 | Increase overall smoking cessation rates by 10% | 609 459 | −6.8 | 10 679 917 | −5.6 |
8 | Menthol cessation rate the same as non-menthol rate | 461 006 | −29.5 | 8 577 213 | −24.2 |
9 | Reduce overall switching rate by 10% | 670 082 | 2.4 | 11 612 042 | 2.7 |
10 | Increase overall switching rate by 10% | 638 805 | −2.4 | 11 019 404 | −2.6 |
11 | Menthol cessation rate the same as non-menthol rate | 461 006 | −29.5 | 8 577 213 | −24.2 |
12 | Reduce the annual decline in switching rate from 10% to 0% | 520 179 | −20.5 | 8 830 696 | −21.9 |
13 | Reduce NVP initiation rates by 10% | 654 443 | 0.03 | 11 318 431 | 0.1 |
14 | Increase NVP initiation rates by 10% | 654 001 | −0.03 | 11 303 795 | −0.1 |
15 | Reduce NVP cessation rates by 10% | 650 266 | −0.6 | 11 253 710 | −0.5 |
16 | Increase NVP cessation rates by 10% | 657 768 | 0.5 | 11 363 818 | 0.5 |
*% change is in terms of the relative difference from the base case (eg, (687 209–654 221)/654 221 for case 2 relative to case 1).
NVP, nicotine vaping product.