Table 2

Sensitivity analysis of averted smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost to NVP relative risks and individual transition parameters, both genders combined, all ages, 2021–2060

CaseDescriptionSmoking and vaping-attributable deaths averted% change*Smoking and vaping-attributable life-years lost averted% change*
1Base case with NVP at 15% of cigarette excess mortality risk654 22111 311 077
2NVP risk at 5% of cigarette-attributable excess mortality risk687 2095.011 924 1145.4
3NVP risk at 25% of cigarette-attributable excess mortality risk622 425−4.910 707 764−5.3
4Reduce overall smoking initiation rates by 10%647 128−1.111 083 049−2.0
5Increase overall smoking initiation rates by 10%661 2011.111 535 1312.0
6Reduce overall smoking cessation rates by 10%702 3537.411 979 5485.9
7Increase overall smoking cessation rates by 10%609 459−6.810 679 917−5.6
8Menthol cessation rate the same as non-menthol rate461 006−29.58 577 213−24.2
9Reduce overall switching rate by 10%670 0822.411 612 0422.7
10Increase overall switching rate by 10%638 805−2.411 019 404−2.6
11Menthol cessation rate the same as non-menthol rate461 006−29.58 577 213−24.2
12Reduce the annual decline in switching rate from 10% to 0%520 179−20.58 830 696−21.9
13Reduce NVP initiation rates by 10%654 4430.0311 318 4310.1
14Increase NVP initiation rates by 10%654 001−0.0311 303 795−0.1
15Reduce NVP cessation rates by 10%650 266−0.611 253 710−0.5
16Increase NVP cessation rates by 10%657 7680.511 363 8180.5
  • *% change is in terms of the relative difference from the base case (eg, (687 209–654 221)/654 221 for case 2 relative to case 1).

  • NVP, nicotine vaping product.