Table 1

Smoking and NVP prevalence, smoking and vaping-attributable deaths, life-years lost and public health impact for both genders combined, age 18 and above, 2021–2060

Status quo scenario
CategoryCategory/year202120262060Cumulative impact*
PrevalenceMenthol smoker5.4%4.5%2.4%−55.7%
Non-menthol smoker7.1%5.7%2.7%−62.6%
Total smokers†12.6%10.2%5.1%−59.6%
Former smoker19.4%18.4%9.2%−52.7%
Exclusive NVP user‡3.5%4.7%5.8%64.4%
Former NVP user0.2%0.6%4.6%1972.5%
Smoking and vaping-attributable deaths§Menthol smoker77 45574 13639 4182 402 279
Non-menthol smoker122 242106 12437 9232 909 245
Former smoker175 798189 490192 3688 500 851
Exclusive NVP user‡5031729611 032392 107
Former NVP user00171712 811
Total380 525377 046282 45714 217 294
Life-years lostMenthol smoker1 335 2501 242 012556 13137 846 630
Non-menthol smoker1 949 5021 655 744581 81045 122 020
Former smoker1 323 2471 404 4601 050 41453 496 563
Exclusive NVP user86 635122 874181 2416 494 346
Former smoker-NVP user85 815117 70450 7344 246 249
Former NVP user0232 110278 716
Total4 694 6354 425 0922 401 706143 238 275
Menthol ban scenario
Category Category/year 2021 2026 2060 Cumulative impact*
PrevalenceMenthol smoker5.4%0.3%0.1%−98.5%
Non-menthol smoker7.1%8.4%4.2%−40.9%
Total smokers†12.6%8.7%4.3%−65.7%
Former smoker19.4%19.1%9.2%−52.4%
Exclusive NVP user‡3.5%5.7%7.4%108.0%
Former NVP user0.2%0.6%5.6%2418.0%
Smoking and vaping-attributable deaths§Menthol smoker77 45567922557271 469
Non-menthol smoker122 242151 29955 3794 157 520
Former smoker175 798191 098195 7448 620 599
Exclusive NVP user503110 76812 859499 475
Former smoker-NVP user501110 6406815413 819
Former NVP users00189514 010
Total380 525359 958268 43513 563 073
Life-years lostMenthol smoker1 335 250111 67830 5554 174 157
Non-menthol smoker1 949 5022 403 756841 52064 926 659
Former smoker1 323 2471 424 9931 065 19454 531 402
Exclusive NVP user‡86 635122 874181 2416 494 346
Former smoker-NVP user85 815168 03356 0505 418 265
Former NVP user0235 817306 840
Total4 694 6354 113 6512 182 890131 927 198
Difference between menthol status quo and menthol ban scenario
Relative reduction in prevalenceMenthol smoker–−92.5%−96.5%–
Non-menthol smoker–47.4%58.0%–
Total smokers†–−14.7%−15.1%–
Total NVP users‡–22.6%26.5%–
GainAverted deaths–17 08814 022654 221
Averted life-years lost–311 441218 81711 311 077

  • *The cumulative impact is measured in terms of the relative change from 2021 to 2060 for prevalence rates (ie, (2060–2021)/2021) and the sum of the smoking and vaping-attributable deaths or life-years lost over the years 2021 through 2060.

  • †Total smokers include menthol and non-menthol smokers.

  • ‡Exclusive NVP users include de novo exclusive NVP users and former smokers now using NVPs.

  • §The number of smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost is rounded to the nearest integer.

  • ¶The difference between the Status quo and Menthol ban scenarios includes the comparisons for prevalence in relative terms and for health gains in absolute terms. Relative reduction in prevalence is measured as the relative difference between the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario (ie, (postban–preban)/preban) in years 2026 and 2060; the health gain is measured as the change in averted deaths and life-years lost from the Status quo scenario and the Menthol ban scenario.

  • NVP, nicotine vaping product.